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Working Paper
Money and activity in the U.K. 1961-1983: surprise? surprise!
This is a study of the impact of money growth and money growth surprises on U.K. real activity (GDP and unemployment). We find no support for the 'only surprises have real effects' story except in the 1960s when the fixed exchange rate regime makes exogeneity of money questionable. Some support is found for the older monetarist view that lagged actual money growth has real effects. Our most surprising result is that U.S. M1 growth outperforms both U.K. M1 and sterling M3 as a determinant of U.K. real activity in the floating exchange rate period.
Working Paper
Episodes of Exuberance in Housing Markets: In Search of the Smoking Gun
In this paper, we examine changes in the time series properties of standard housing market indicators (real house prices, price-to-income ratios, and price-to-rent ratios) for a large set of countries to detect episodes of explosive dynamics. Dating exuberance in housing markets provides a timeline as well as empirical content to the narrative connecting housing exuberance to the global 2008?09 recession. For our investigation, we employ two recursive univariate unit root tests developed by Phillips et al. (2011) and Phillips et al. (2015). We also propose a novel extension of the Phillips et ...