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Journal Article
Freedom, trade, and growth
Working Paper
What happens when the technology growth trend changes?: transition dynamics, capital growth and the \"new economy\"
The rapid increase in U.S. economic growth during the late 1990s inspired speculation that an acceleration in the rate of technological progress had given rise to an increase in potential output growth. This paper considers the transition dynamics associated with such a change using a general equilibrium framework that incorporates stochastic growth trends. The model suggests that transition dynamics associated with a shift in the technological growth trend can have important implications for macroeconomic growth patterns, particularly when technological change is investment-specific. ...
Journal Article
The FOMC in 1993 and 1994: monetary policy in transition
Journal Article
The business cycle and chain-weighted GDP: has our perspective changed?
Our perspective on the U.S. economy's recent performance has been challenged recently by changes in the methodology used to adjust the National Income and Product Accounts for inflation. Michael R. Pakko surveys the changes embodied in the revised data, examining the question of whether or not the revisions alter our view of the overall pattern of economic fluctuations known collectively as the business cycle.
Journal Article
Accounting for computers
Journal Article
The economics of smoking bans: peering through the haze
Although such prohibitions are becoming more common, generalizations can't be made about their impact because they still are too new and too few. Scrutiny of the ban in Maryville, Mo., shows that the issues remain hazy.
Working Paper
Monetary policy and natural disasters in a DSGE model: how should the Fed have responded to Hurricane Katrina?
In the immediate aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, speculation arose that the Federal Reserve might respond by easing monetary policy. This paper uses a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model to investigate the appropriate monetary policy response to a natural disaster. We show that the standard Taylor (1993) rule response in models with and without nominal rigidities is to increase the nominal interest rate. That finding is unchanged when we consider the optimal policy response to a disaster. A nominal interest rate increase following a disaster mitigates both temporary inflation ...
Working Paper
Trade, investment, and international borrowing in two-country business cycle models
Two country applications of equilibrium business cycle methodology have succeeded in matching some key features of international fluctuations. However, discrepancies between theory and data remain. This paper identifies a new anomaly related to a basic property of typical models: the prediction of countercyclical net exports is fundamentally related to (counterfactual) implication for negative cross-country investment correlations. Although the introduction of investment adjustment costs can reverse this anomaly, it has the side-effect of inducing the wrong cyclical behavior for net exports. ...
Journal Article
Considering the capital account
Working Paper
No smoking at the slot machines: the effect of a smoke-free law on Delaware gaming revenues
As communities around the nation consider laws restricting smoking in public places, a key political and economic issue that often arises is the effect that such laws have on the sales and profits of particular sectors. The gaming industry has been active in opposition to such ordinances, citing large prospective losses. This article analyzes the revenues of three gaming facilities in Delaware following the implementation of a smoke-free law in December 2002. Revenues are found to have declined significantly at each of the three facilities, with relative magnitudes of losses corresponding to ...