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Discussion Paper
Job Ladders and Careers
Workers in the United States experience vast differences in lifetime earnings. Individuals in the 90th percentile earn around seven times more than those in the 10th percentile, and those in the top percentile earn almost twenty times more. A large share of these differences arise over the course of people’s careers. What accounts for these vastly different outcomes in the labor market? Why do some individuals experience much steeper earnings profiles than others? Previous research has shown that the “job ladder”—in which workers obtain large pay increases when they switch to better ...
AI Hype or Reality? Shifts in Corporate Investment after ChatGPT
An analysis of earnings calls shows a sharp rise in AI-related chatter among U.S. corporate executives. But this increase doesn’t appear to be matched by a similar rise in capital and R&D spending.
Does Worker Scarcity Spur Investment, Automation and Productivity? Evidence from Earnings Calls
An analysis suggests labor issues like higher wages and hiring difficulties have prompted some firms to invest in automation, leading to productivity growth.
Report
What Do Data on Millions of U.S. Workers Reveal about Life-Cycle Earnings Dynamics?
We study individual earnings dynamics over the life cycle using panel data on millions of U.S. workers. Using nonparametric methods, we first show that the distribution of earnings changes exhibits substantial deviations from lognormality, such as negative skewness and very high kurtosis. Further, the extent of these nonnormalities varies significantly with age and earnings level, peaking around age 50 and between the 70th and 90th percentiles of the earnings distribution. Second, we estimate nonparametric impulse response functions and find important asymmetries: positive changes for ...
Why U.S. House Prices Stayed Resilient While Prices Fell in Other Countries
Differences in the structure of mortgages, specifically fixed rate versus variable rate, can explain the divergence in house price trends among developed countries, this analysis reveals.
Silver Spoon or Self-Made? Exploring 23 Years of Wealth Mobility
An analysis of the changes in wealth distribution as individuals age from their late 20s to early 50s reveals a substantial degree of persistence at the top 1%.
Unlike Others, the Top Earners See Strong Pay Growth Beyond Age 35
An analysis shows that the top 2% of male earners saw strong pay growth after 35. For the bottom 2% and the median worker, the pace declined or plateaued.
Working Paper
The nature of countercyclical income risk
This paper studies the nature of business cycle variation in individual earnings risk using a dataset from the U.S. Social Security Administration, which contains (uncapped) earnings histories for millions of anonymous individuals. The base sample is a nationally representative panel containing 10 percent of all U.S. males from 1978 to 2010. We use these data to decompose individual earnings growth during recessions into "between-group" and "within-group" components. We begin with the behavior of within-group shocks. Contrary to past research, we do not find the variance of idiosyncratic ...
AI Optimism and Uncertainty: What Can Earnings Calls Tell Us Post-ChatGPT?
An analysis of earnings calls shows that America’s corporate leaders are talking much more about AI. It also reveals an increase in perceived risk in this new technology.