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Journal Article
Dealing with the Leftovers: Residual Seasonality in GDP
Owyang, Michael T.; Shell, Hannah (2018)
Residual seasonality in gross domestic product can make it difficult for policymakers to know whether weak first-quarter GDP growth is due to an actual downturn or a reported number that is understated.
The Regional Economist , Volume 26 , Issue 4

Working Paper
Contagious Switching
Owyang, Michael T.; Soques, Daniel; Piger, Jeremy M. (2021-02-28)
We analyze the propagation of recessions across countries. We construct a model that allows for multiple qualitative state variables in a vector autoregression (VAR) setting. The VAR structure allows us to include country-level variables to determine whether policy also propagates across countries. We consider two different versions of the model. One version assumes the discrete state of the economy (expansion or recession) is observed. The other assumes that the state of the economy is unobserved and must be inferred from movements in economic growth. We apply the model to Canada, Mexico, ...
Working Papers , Paper 2019-014

Working Paper
International Stock Comovements with Endogenous Clusters
Owyang, Michael T.; Jackson, Laura E.; Coroneo, Laura (2020-03-27)
We examine international stock return comovements of country-industry portfolios. Our model allows comovements to be driven by a global and a cluster component, with the cluster membership endogenously determined. Results indicate that country-industry portfolios tend to cluster mainly within geographical areas that can include one or more countries. The cluster compositions substantially changed over time, with the emergence of clusters among European countries from the early 2000s. The cluster component was the main driver of country-industry portfolio returns for most of the sample, except ...
Working Papers , Paper 2018-038

Journal Article
Financial aid and college choice
Owyang, Michael T.; Chiodo, Abbigail J. (2003-08)
National Economic Trends , Issue Aug

Journal Article
Regional aggregation in forecasting: an application to the Federal Reserve’s Eighth District
Owyang, Michael T.; Engemann, Kristie M.; Hernandez-Murillo, Ruben (2011-05)
Hernndez-Murillo and Owyang (2006) showed that accounting for spatial correlations in regional data can improve forecasts of national employment. This paper considers whether the predictive advantage of disaggregate models remains when forecasting subnational data. The authors conduct horse races among several forecasting models in which the objective is to forecast regional- or state-level employment. For some models, the objective is to forecast using the sum of further disaggregated employment (i.e., forecasts of metropolitan statistical area [MSA]-level data are summed to yield ...
Review , Volume 93 , Issue May

Journal Article
A winning combination? economic theory meets sports
Owyang, Michael T.; Engemann, Kristie M. (2009-01)
Satisfying a need to get out in the field, some economists are studying sports. Their topics have included racism in the NBA, coaches' maximization of their chances of winning, and the direction that soccer players and goalies should move during penalty kicks.
The Regional Economist , Issue Jan , Pages 10-13

Journal Article
So much for that merit raise: the link between wages and appearance
Owyang, Michael T.; Engemann, Kristie M. (2005-04)
If you've long suspected that the boss rewards not just hard work but good looks, you're right, based on research into the impact of beauty, weight and height on wages.
The Regional Economist , Issue Apr , Pages 10-11

Working Paper
States and the business cycle
Owyang, Michael T.; Wall, Howard J.; Rapach, David E. (2008)
We model the U.S. business cycle using a dynamic factor model that identifies common factors underlying fluctuations in state-level income and employment growth. We find three such common factors, each of which is associated with a set of factor loadings that indicate the extent to which each state?s business cycle is related to the national business cycle. According to the factor loadings, there is a great deal of heterogeneity in the nature of the links between state and national economies. In addition to exhibiting interesting geographic patterns, the factor loadings tend to be related to ...
Working Papers , Paper 2007-050

Journal Article
Changing trends in the labor force: a survey
Wheeler, Christopher H.; Owyang, Michael T.; Engemann, Kristie M.; DiCecio, Riccardo (2008-01)
The composition of the American workforce has changed dramatically over the past half century as a result of both the emergence of married women as a substantial component of the labor force and an increase in the number of minority workers. The aging of the population has contributed to this change as well. In this paper, the authors review the evidence of changing labor force participation rates, estimate the trends in labor force participation over the past 50 years, and find that aggregate participation has stabilized after a period of persistent increases. Moreover, they examine the ...
Review , Volume 90 , Issue Jan , Pages 47-62

Journal Article
Okun’s law over the business cycle: was the great recession all that different?
Sekhposyan, Tatevik; Owyang, Michael T. (2012-09)
In 1962, Arthur Okun posited an empirical relationship between the change in the unemployment rate and real output growth. Since then, the media, policymakers, pundits, and intermediate macro students have used the so-called Okun?s law as a rule of thumb to relate changes in unemployment to changes in output growth. However, some studies have suggested that the relationship has not been stable over time. Furthermore, the slow recovery of U.S. unemployment relative to output after the Great Recession has led some to question whether Okun?s law has changed permanently. In this light, the ...
Review , Issue Sep , Pages 399-418

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