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Journal Article
Okun's law in recession and recovery
Owyang, Michael T.; Vermann, E. Katarina (2013)
The relationship between unemployment and output growth changes during recoveries.
Economic Synopses

Journal Article
Symmetric inflation risk
Owyang, Michael T.; Chiodo, Abbigail J. (2003-04)
Monetary Trends , Issue Apr

Working Paper
Monetary policy in a Markov-switching VECM: implications for the cost of disinflation and the price puzzle
Owyang, Michael T.; Francis, Neville (2004)
Monetary policy VARs typically presume stability of the long-run outcomes. We introduce the possibility of switches in the long-run equilibrium in a cointegrated VAR by allowing both the covariance matrix and weighting matrix in the error-correction term to switch. We find that monetary policy alternates between sustaining long-run growth and disinflationary regimes. Allowing state changes can also help explain the price puzzle and justify the use of commodity prices as a corrective measure. Finally, we show that regime-switching has implications for disinflationary monetary policy and can ...
Working Papers , Paper 2003-001

Working Paper
Explaining the evolution of pension structure and job tenure
Owyang, Michael T.; Friedberg, Leora (2004)
Average and expected job tenure of workers has fallen significantly over the last two decades. Workers have also experienced a major shift in pension coverage. Traditional defined benefit pensions, designed to reward long tenure, have become steadily less common, while defined contribution pensions, which are largely portable, have spread. The link between job tenure and pension trends has not been closely examined, but it offers insights about both phenomena. This paper uses a contract-theoretic matching model with moral hazard to explain changes in both pension structure and job tenure; we ...
Working Papers , Paper 2002-022

Journal Article
Editor's introduction
Owyang, Michael T. (2005-07)
Review , Volume 87 , Issue Jul , Pages 429-434

Working Paper
Clustered Housing Cycles
Rubio, Margarita; Owyang, Michael T.; Hernandez-Murillo, Ruben (2015-10-22)
Using a panel of U.S. city-level building permits data, we estimate a Markov-switching model of housing cycles that allows for idiosyncratic departures from a national housing cycle. These departures occur for clusters of cities that experience simultaneous housing contractions. We find that cities do not form housing regions in the traditional geographic sense. Instead, similarities in factors affecting the demand for housing (such as average winter temperature and the unemployment rate) appear to be more important determinants of cyclical comovements than similarities in factors affecting ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1524

Working Paper
Real-Time Forecasting and Scenario Analysis using a Large Mixed-Frequency Bayesian VAR
Owyang, Michael T.; McCracken, Michael W.; Sekhposyan, Tatevik (2020-04-10)
We use a mixed-frequency vector autoregression to obtain intraquarter point and density forecasts as new, high frequency information becomes available. This model, delineated in Ghysels (2016), is specified at the lowest sampling frequency; high frequency observations are treated as different economic series occurring at the low frequency. As this type of data stacking results in a high-dimensional system, we rely on Bayesian shrinkage to mitigate parameter proliferation. We obtain high-frequency updates to forecasts by treating new data releases as conditioning information. The same ...
Working Papers , Paper 2015-030

Journal Article
A primer on the empirical identification of government spending shocks
Zubairy, Sarah; Owyang, Michael T.; Engemann, Kristie M. (2008-03)
The empirical literature on the effects of government spending shocks lacks unanimity about the responses of consumption and wages. Proponents of shocks identified by structural vector auto-regressions (VARs) find results consistent with New Keynesian models: consumption and wages increase. On the other hand, proponents of the narrative approach find results consistent with neoclassical models: consumption and wages decrease. This paper reviews these two identifications and confirms their differences by using standard economic series. It also uses alternative measures of government spending, ...
Review , Volume 90 , Issue Mar , Pages 117-132

Journal Article
Measuring the effect of school choice on economic outcomes
Vermann, E. Katarina; Owyang, Michael T. (2012-10)
In measuring the returns to education, economists usually focus on the number of years of schooling. But many people would say that the quality of schooling matters, too, even at the high school level. Does the type of high school attended make a difference in future income?
The Regional Economist , Issue Oct , Pages 5-9

Journal Article
Regional aggregation in forecasting: an application to the Federal Reserve's Eighth District
Owyang, Michael T.; Engemann, Kristie M.; Hernandez-Murillo, Ruben (2008-10)
Hernndez-Murillo and Owyang (2006) showed that accounting for spatial correlations in regional data can improve forecasts of national employment. This paper considers whether the predictive advantage of disaggregate models remains when forecasting subnational data. The authors conduct horse races among several forecasting models in which the objective is to forecast regional- or state-level employment. For some models, the objective is to forecast using the sum of further disaggregated employment (i.e., forecasts of metropolitan statistical area (MSA)-level data are summed to yield ...
Regional Economic Development , Issue Oct , Pages 15-29

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