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Journal Article
What can central banks do about the value of the dollar?
Journal Article
Is America being sold out?
Journal Article
Risk aversion, efficient markets and the forward exchange rate
Working Paper
Risk aversion, risk sharing, and joint bidding: a study of outer continental shelf petroleum auctions
The bidding decision by firms in OCS petroleum auctions is modeled as an application of the Arrow-Pratt theory of risk aversion. This theory is apt since OCS leases are innately risky investments: during 1954-1969, 77 percent of the Gulf of Mexico leases were unprofitable, while the average bonus (price) was $2,228,000. The model of the simultaneous choices of bid level, share in joint bids, and bids on other tracts in the same auction is tested on 17 auctions during 1968-1975. Empirical results support the hypothesis of decreasing absolute risk aversion and the risk-pooling explanation of ...
Working Paper
The U. S. monetary policy regime, interest differentials and dollar exchange rate risk premia
It is commonly believed that the Federal Reserve targeted money growth directly and allowed greater variation in interest rates during the October 1979-October 1982 period. Other things the same, this policy regime would be expected to increase the risk premium on the dollar exchange rate relative to a regime that attempted to reduce variations in the interest rate. We find that risk premia apparently did increase during the regime of M1 targeting. This implied that failure to recognize the effects of changes in Fed policy is a source of specification error in exchange rate models.
Journal Article
Money, credit and velocity
Journal Article
A perspective on the economics of natural gas decontrol
Journal Article
Five common myths about floating exchange rates