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Author:Osler, Carol L. 

Journal Article
In brief: high foreign real interest rates and investment in the 1990s

This article argues that high interest rates abroad have substantially depressed private investment in most foreign members of the Group of Seven during the 1990s. Business investment has been especially hard hit and housing construction disrupted, although the effect on housing has been offset in some countries by stimulative fiscal policies. The author estimates that overall, high interest rates have reduced output in the foreign G-7 by 2 1/2 to 4 1/4 percent per year on average over 1990-93.
Quarterly Review , Volume 19 , Issue Spr , Pages 38-44

Journal Article
Second district housing prices: why so weak in the 1990s?

Between 1990 and 1997, poor economic fundamentals and a prolonged hangover from excessively rapid growth in the 1980s caused house prices in the New York metropolitan area to grow much more slowly than prices nationwide; these factors played a smaller role in the decline of upstate New York's house prices relative to the nation's.
Current Issues in Economics and Finance , Volume 5 , Issue Jan

Monograph
The credit slowdown abroad

Monograph

Report
Rational speculators and exchange rate volatility

This paper examines whether rational, fully informed speculators will smooth exchange rates. Friedman's (1953) claim that they must do so is challenged, based on the exclusion of interest rate differentials from his interpretation of speculator behavior. Once one recognizes that interest rates matter to speculators, it becomes apparent that rational speculators could sometimes violate Friedman's description of their behavior, and buy currency when its value is relatively high or sell currency when its value is low. For this reason the presence of rational, fully informed speculators may ...
Staff Reports , Paper 13

Report
Asset market hangovers and economic growth: U.S. housing markets

This paper presents evidence that speculative bubbles can have sizeable effects on house prices, and on housing investment. We infer that deviations of asset prices from fundamental values may have serious consequences for real activity, and explore some policy implications. The analysis relies on a panel of U.S. state-level data covering 1973-1996.
Research Paper , Paper 9801

Journal Article
The changing landscape of the financial services industry: what lies ahead?

Economic Policy Review , Issue Oct , Pages 39-54

Report
Evaluating chart-based technical analysis: the head-and-shoulder pattern in foreign exchange

Research Paper , Paper 9414

Report
Policy stabilization and exchange rate stability

Research Paper , Paper 9402

Report
Head and shoulders: not just a flaky pattern

This paper evaluates rigorously the predictive power of the head-and-shoulders pattern as applied to daily exchange rates. Though such visual, nonlinear chart patterns are applied frequently by technical analysts, our paper is one of the first to evaluate the predictive power of such patterns. We apply a trading rule based on the head-and-shoulders pattern to daily exchange rates of major currencies versus the dollar during the floating rate period (from March 1973 to June 1994). We identify head-and-shoulders patterns using an objective, computer-implemented algorithm based on criteria in ...
Staff Reports , Paper 4

Report
Exchange rate dynamics and speculator behavior

Research Paper , Paper 9222

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