Search Results
Journal Article
Introduction
This volume of the Economic Policy Review, "Special issue on the economic effects of September 11," explores some of the key economic consequences of the attacks of September 11. The six articles that make up the volume address several important questions: how great were the losses in New York City on September 11 and in the difficult months thereafter? How much will the nation spend to prevent future attacks? Did the destruction of information and infrastructure impair the functioning of the payments and securities settlement systems, and what steps minimize further damage? Will these ...
Report
Asset market hangovers and economic growth: U.S. housing markets
This paper presents evidence that speculative bubbles can have sizeable effects on house prices, and on housing investment. We infer that deviations of asset prices from fundamental values may have serious consequences for real activity, and explore some policy implications. The analysis relies on a panel of U.S. state-level data covering 1973-1996.
Report
Identifying noise traders: the head-and-shoulders pattern in U.S. equities
This paper identifies a specific set of agents as noise traders in U.S. equity markets, and examines their effects on returns. These agents, who speculate using the "head-and-shoulders" chart pattern, are shown to qualify as noise traders because (1) trading volume is exceptionally high when they are active, and (2) their trading is unprofitable. Head-and-shoulders sales lower prices and vice versa, effects that disappear within two weeks.
Monograph
The credit slowdown abroad
Journal Article
Rapidly rising corporate debt: are firms now vulnerable to an economic slowdown?
The buildup of debt in the late 1990s has raised concerns about the U.S. nonfinancial corporate sector's health and its vulnerability to economic downturns. An analysis of the sector suggests that while small firms are experiencing some weakness, corporations as a group are in good financial shape.
Journal Article
Second district housing prices: why so weak in the 1990s?
Between 1990 and 1997, poor economic fundamentals and a prolonged hangover from excessively rapid growth in the 1980s caused house prices in the New York metropolitan area to grow much more slowly than prices nationwide; these factors played a smaller role in the decline of upstate New York's house prices relative to the nation's.
Report
Head and shoulders: not just a flaky pattern
This paper evaluates rigorously the predictive power of the head-and-shoulders pattern as applied to daily exchange rates. Though such visual, nonlinear chart patterns are applied frequently by technical analysts, our paper is one of the first to evaluate the predictive power of such patterns. We apply a trading rule based on the head-and-shoulders pattern to daily exchange rates of major currencies versus the dollar during the floating rate period (from March 1973 to June 1994). We identify head-and-shoulders patterns using an objective, computer-implemented algorithm based on criteria in ...
Report
Currency orders and exchange-rate dynamics: explaining the success of technical analysis
This paper provides a microstructural explanation for the success of two familiar predictions from technical analysis: 1) trends tend to be reversed at predictable support and resistance levels, and 2) trends gain momentum once predictable support and resistance levels are crossed. ; The explanation is based on a close examination of stop-loss and take-profit orders at a large foreign exchange dealing bank. Take-profit orders tend to reflect price trends, and stop-loss orders tend to intensify trends. The requested execution rates of these orders are strongly clustered at round numbers, which ...
Report
Short-term speculators and the origins of near-random-walk exchange rate behavior
This paper suggests that normal speculative activity could be a source of random-walk exchange rate behavior. Using a noise trader model to analyze very short-term exchange rate behavior, it shows that rational, risk-averse speculators will smooth the impact of shocks to exchange rate fundamentals. With sufficient speculative activity, an exchange rate could become statistically indistinguishable from a random walk, regardless of the generating processes of its fundamental determinants. ; This result may help resolve the apparent inconsistency between the observed behavior of floating ...