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Declining immigration weighs on GDP growth, with little impact on inflation
Unauthorized immigration surged sharply in 2021–24 but has since declined abruptly with negative implications for economic growth. Estimates based on historical data and a structural vector autoregression model suggest gross domestic product growth in 2025 is 0.75 to 1 percentage points lower than in a benchmark simulation using the Congressional Budget Office’s immigration projections through November 2024.
Grading Texas education requires a closer look behind the numbers
The adequacy of the Texas educational system, which enrolls more than 5.5 million children in public kindergarten-through-12 schools, has been a recurring source of concern in the state.
Without Immigration, U.S. Economy Will Struggle to Grow
Slowing labor force growth is the product of a number of factors—the aging of the U.S. population, retiring baby boomers and declining birth rates. But another element is immigration.
Texas Economy Improves Despite Lagging Sectors as COVID-19 Cases Decline
Continued growth is projected for the rest of the year, but it may be somewhat restrained by the expiration of federal stimulus programs and election uncertainty.
Texas Economy Keeps Growing Despite More Pessimistic Outlook
The regional economy is growing at a moderate pace, and labor markets remain tight. However, the outlook among Texas firms has deteriorated due to concern about tariffs, trade policy uncertainty and slowing global growth.
Not Everything Is Bigger in Texas: The Varied Fortunes of Four Smaller Metros
While Texas’ major metropolitan areas power the bulk of the state’s commercial activity, some smaller metros have worked to establish their place as part of the state’s economic mosaic.
Supply-Chain Woes, Labor Shortages and COVID-19 Slow Resilient Texas Economy
Regional economic growth has slowed, though it remains robust by historical standards. While demand has improved from year-ago levels, supply-chain disruptions and labor shortages have limited output growth and pushed up wages and prices.
Texas Birth-Rate Decline Complicates Economic Growth Prospects
Lower birth rates are associated with less growth and a more rapidly aging population and, hence, slower economic expansion.
Federal Aid Helps Border Keep Pace with Texas Economy During Pandemic Turmoil
U.S. pandemic relief policies boosted the border economy, helping it keep pace with state growth. The restoration of trade with Mexico and a surprise migration surge also supported more-recent border economic activity.
Mounting Signs Point to a Texas Economic Slowdown
The most recent jobs report showed state employment was flat in August. The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.1 percent (from 4.0 percent in July), and labor force and wage growth also eased.