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Monograph
Illegal immigration and enforcement along the southwest border
Orrenius, Pia M. (2001)
Monograph

Without Immigration, U.S. Economy Will Struggle to Grow
Smith, Chloe N.; Orrenius, Pia M. (2020-04-09)
Slowing labor force growth is the product of a number of factors—the aging of the U.S. population, retiring baby boomers and declining birth rates. But another element is immigration.
Dallas Fed Economics

Declining immigration weighs on GDP growth, with little impact on inflation
Orrenius, Pia M.; Ozor, Grace; Zavodny, Madeline; Zhou, Xiaoqing (2025-07-08)
Unauthorized immigration surged sharply in 2021–24 but has since declined abruptly with negative implications for economic growth. Estimates based on historical data and a structural vector autoregression model suggest gross domestic product growth in 2025 is 0.75 to 1 percentage points lower than in a benchmark simulation using the Congressional Budget Office’s immigration projections through November 2024.
Dallas Fed Economics

Journal Article
Getting to the bottom of Texas' Latino pay gap
Kerr, Emily; Zavodny, Madeline; Orrenius, Pia M. (2009-10)
Among Latinos, the U.S. born make up a majority in Texas but a minority in the rest of the country. Because natives typically earn more than immigrants, a state with a large, established population of U.S.-born Latinos might be expected to have relatively high Latino wages. That's not the case in Texas. The Latino wage gap--the difference between the wages of Latinos and non-Hispanic whites--is significantly larger in Texas than in the rest of the nation. ; What drives the gap in Texas? To find out, we look at Latinos' recent contributions to the state's labor force and trends in their wages ...
Southwest Economy , Issue Q4 , Pages 3-7

Journal Article
Will reforms pay off this time? Experts assess Mexico’s prospects
Coronado, Roberto; Cañas, Jesus; Orrenius, Pia M. (2013-04)
Mexico?s sharp first-quarter slowdown isn?t entirely surprising. While the country has made considerable economic advances in recent years, its growth is closely tied to that of its northern neighbor, and the U.S. economy stalled at year-end. Some Mexico indicators, such as industrial production, have been flat since mid-2012.
Southwest Economy , Issue Q2 , Pages 17-24

Journal Article
New Technology Boosts Texas Firms' Output, Alters Worker Mix
Slijk, Christopher; Orrenius, Pia M.; Kerr, Emily (2018-07)
A Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas survey of manufacturing and services firms in Texas found that as companies adopt new technologies, the number of workers is little changed though the employees? skill levels shift. While some manufacturers see tighter margins as a result of technology and globalization, service sector firms may realize increased pricing power.
Southwest Economy , Issue Q3 , Pages 3-6

Texas natives likeliest to ‘stick’ around, pointing to state’s economic health
Pranger, Ana; Orrenius, Pia M.; Zavodny, Madeline (2023-08-29)
Based on a calculation measuring the share of people born in each state who still live there, Texas is the nation’s “stickiest” state. The natives aren’t leaving.
Dallas Fed Economics

Journal Article
Noteworthy: Demographics, natural gas, electric power
Orrenius, Pia M. (2011-04)
The regional economic outlook is quite positive. Broad-based hiring in every sector from energy to construction to services reflects the confidence employers have that the region is poised for sustained expansion
Southwest Economy , Issue Q2 , Pages 14

Journal Article
U.S. immigration and economic growth: putting policy on hold
Orrenius, Pia M. (2003-11)
This article discusses immigrants? economic contributions and how these recent changes impact both the foreign-born population already living here and those trying to enter the United States. Despite the common perception that 9/11 triggered a crackdown on immigration (the enactment of the USA Patriot Act, the reorganization of the Immigration and Naturalization Service into Homeland Security, and other changes), pre-9/11 policies actually constituted a much more substantive effort in this direction. The post-9/11 period is most striking for the lack of change. Significant immigration reform ...
Southwest Economy , Issue Nov , Pages 1-7

Working Paper
Irregular immigration in the European Union
Zavodny, Madeline; Orrenius, Pia M. (2016-01-01)
Unauthorized immigration is on the rise again in the EU. Although precise estimates are hard to come by, proximity to nations in turmoil and the promise of a better life have drawn hundreds of thousands of irregular migrants to the EU in 2014-2015. Further complicating the ongoing challenge is the confounding flow of humanitarian migrants, who are fleeing not for a job but for their lives. Those who flee for better economic conditions are irregular migrants, not humanitarian migrants, but the lines between the two are often blurred. This policy brief surveys the state of irregular immigration ...
Working Papers , Paper 1603

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