Search Results
Journal Article
Evolution of U.S. trade with China
Despite the improvements in the overall U.S. trade balance in the latter half of the 1980s, the U.S. trade deficit with China has widened significantly. This article investigates the factors underlying this growing deficit and analyzes how growth in imports from China has affected the pattern of U.S. imports from other Asian economies, notably Hong Kong.
Discussion Paper
Some Options for Addressing Puerto Rico’s Fiscal Problems
Puerto Rico’s economic and fiscal challenges have been an important focus of work done here at the New York Fed, resulting in two reports (2012 and 2014), several blog posts and one paper in our Current Issues series in just the last few years. As the Commonwealth’s problems have deepened, the Obama administration and Congress have begun discussing potential approaches to addressing them. In this post, we update our previous estimates of Puerto Rico’s outstanding debt and discuss the effect that various forms of bankruptcy protection might have on the Commonwealth.
Journal Article
The trade balance effects of foreign direct investment in U.S. manufacturing
With the rise in foreign direct investment in U.S. manufacturing during the 1980s, the affiliates of foreign multinationals have become potentially important sources of improved U.S. international competitiveness. This article describes the growing foreign presence in the U.S. manufacturing sector and identifies the channels through which foreign investment is most likely to influence exports and imports. The author presents estimates of the long-term trade balance effects of increased foreign ownership of U.S. manufacturing firms.
Discussion Paper
The Welfare Costs of Superstorm Sandy
As most of the New York metropolitan region begins to get back to normal following the devastation caused by superstorm Sandy, researchers and analysts are trying to assess the total ?economic cost? of the storm. But what, exactly, is meant by economic cost? Typically, those tallying up the economic cost of a disaster think of two types of costs: loss of capital (property damage and destruction) and loss of economic activity (caused by disruptions). But there is another important type of economic loss that often is not estimated or discussed in policymaking decisions: loss of welfare or ...
Journal Article
1996 job outlook: the New York - New Jersey region
The New York-New Jersey region's hard-earned recovery in employment is being overshadowed by ongoing job losses in certain sectors and the prospect of moderating growth in the United States as a whole. Fortunately, several positive trends are bolstering the region's employment picture. Strength in the services sector, a falloff in restructuring, and gains in income point to continuing--though modest--regional job growth in 1996.
Report
Subprime mortgage lending in New York City: prevalence and performance
Subprime mortgage lending expanded in New York City between 2004 and mid-2007, and delinquencies on these subprime loans have been rising sharply. We use a rich, loan-level data set of the city's outstanding subprime loans as of January 2009 to describe the main features of this lending and to model the performance of these loans. These subprime loans represent a smaller share of total housing units in the city than is true nationwide. In addition, they are found to be clustered in neighborhoods where average borrower credit quality is low and, unlike prime mortgage loans, where ...
Journal Article
The New York - New Jersey job recovery
Modest employment is expected to continue through 1997, with the New York City metropolitan area creating the bulk of new jobs.
Discussion Paper
Is Wall Street the Only Street in New York City?
Has Wall Street—the term for the securities industry that symbolizes New York City’s role as a global financial center—become less of a specialty for the city? In this post, we show that while the securities industry continues to play an outsized role in the New York City economy, the city’s job base has become somewhat more diversified since 1990. Diversification can be beneficial, as it makes a local economy less vulnerable to adverse shocks to its key industry. A recent example appears in a post by Bram and Orr showing that with Wall Street in a bit of a slump, nonfinancial ...
Report
The linkage between regional economic indexes and tax bases: evidence from New York
This paper examines the linkage between economic activity and tax revenues for New York State and New York City. Drawing upon the methodology of Stock and Watson, we use a dynamic single-factor model to estimate indexes of coincident economic indicators. We also construct measures of the sales and withholding tax bases. To conduct an empirical analysis of the relationship between the indexes of economic activity and the tax base series, we use vector autoregression and error correction models. The results provide strong evidence that the coincident indexes contain useful information for ...