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Journal Article
Two new indexes offer a broad view of economic activity in the New York - New Jersey region
The authors develop two coincident indexes that provide a comprehensive measure of economic activity in New Jersey, New York State, and New York City.
Journal Article
The trade balance effects of foreign direct investment in U.S. manufacturing
With the rise in foreign direct investment in U.S. manufacturing during the 1980s, the affiliates of foreign multinationals have become potentially important sources of improved U.S. international competitiveness. This article describes the growing foreign presence in the U.S. manufacturing sector and identifies the channels through which foreign investment is most likely to influence exports and imports. The author presents estimates of the long-term trade balance effects of increased foreign ownership of U.S. manufacturing firms.
Discussion Paper
New York City’s Economic Recovery—Main Street Gets the Jump on Wall Street
After bottoming out in late 2009, New York City’s economy has been on the road to recovery. In this post, we call attention to an unprecedented feature of the current economic recovery: overall employment in the city began to rebound from the recession well before Wall Street started adding jobs. We also consider some questions that this development naturally raises: What took Wall Street employment so long to recover? What’s been driving job generation on Main Street? What does the recent pickup in Wall Street employment suggest about the outlook for the city’s economy?
Journal Article
Leading economic indexes for New York State and New Jersey
The authors develop indexes of leading economic indicators for New York State and New Jersey over the 1972-99 period. They find that the leading indexes convey useful information about the future course of economic activity in both states. The authors then construct separate indexes to forecast recessions and expansions in each state. The movements of the recession and expansion indexes are found to display a close relationship with the behavior of the leading indexes. Accordingly, the recession and expansion indexes allow the authors to extend the informational content of the leading indexes ...
Discussion Paper
Good News or Bad on New York City Jobs?
Unlike much of the nation, New York City has seen a robust rebound in employment since the recession. In early 2012, employment here reached 3.86 million, the largest number of jobs ever recorded. Yet the city’s unemployment rate has risen in recent months and is now 10 percent—its peak during the recession—and well above the 5 percent rate seen before the downturn. This lack of improvement reflects the fact that the number of employed residents of the city has not rebounded at all from its losses during the 2008-09 downturn. While commuters from outside the city have always been a part ...
Journal Article
Can New York City bank on Wall Street?
The securities industry is more important than ever to the New York City economy, and a protracted downturn in the industry's employment could seriously hurt the overall job picture. Increased stability in other New York City industries, however, could help soften the economic effects of such a downturn.
Journal Article
Help for unemployed borrowers: lessons from the Pennsylvania Homeowners’ Emergency Mortgage Assistance Program
In an environment of high foreclosure rates and distressed housing markets, federal policies are focusing on loan modifications to help delinquent homeowners pay their mortgages. While it is too soon to assess the effectiveness of these modifications, policymakers considering future refinements may gain insight from a more established, state-level enterprise that takes an alternative approach to mortgage relief. The Pennsylvania Homeowners? Emergency Mortgage Assistance Program provides temporary income support to homeowners unable to pay their mortgage during a spell of unemployment. The ...
Journal Article
New York - New Jersey job recovery expected to continue in 1998
The pattern of employment recovery in the New York-New Jersey region is expected to remain unbroken in 1998, despite a slight slowing of job growth.
Discussion Paper
The Path of Economic Recovery from Superstorm Sandy
Superstorm Sandy caused damage and disruption to a wide swath of the New York-New Jersey region. The high winds and storm surge resulted in significant physical damage to residential property, commercial real estate, and the power and transportation infrastructure. Everyday activities such as commuting, shopping, and traveling were impeded or in some cases prevented. As a number of communities across the region continue to cope with the damage and ongoing disruptions, there’s concern about if and when activity will return to normal.