Conference Paper
Robust monetary policy under model uncertainty in a small model of the U.S. economy
Stock, James H.; Onatski, Alexei (1999)
Proceedings

Working Paper
Monetary policy under uncertainty in micro-founded macroeconometric models
Williams, Noah; Williams, John C.; Levin, Andrew T.; Onatski, Alexei (2005)
We use a micro-founded macroeconometric modeling framework to investigate the design of monetary policy when the central bank faces uncertainty about the true structure of the economy. We apply Bayesian methods to estimate the parameters of the baseline specification using postwar U.S. data and then determine the policy under commitment that maximizes household welfare. We find that the performance of the optimal policy is closely matched by a simple operational rule that focuses solely on stabilizing nominal wage inflation. Furthermore, this simple wage stabilization rule is remarkably ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2005-15

Conference Paper
Empirical and policy performance of a forward-looking monetary model
Williams, Noah; Onatski, Alexei (2004-03)
In this paper we consider the policy implications of a fully specified dynamic general equilibrium model, developed by Smets and Wouters (2003a). This is a relatively large-scale forward looking model, which was shown to provide a good fit to the data. However there has been little previous work analyzing monetary policy within such a model. We first re-examine the empirical performance of the model. We show that systematically accounting for prior uncertainty leads to substantially different parameter estimates. However many of the qualitative features of the model remain similar under the ...
Proceedings , Issue Mar