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Journal Article
An Alternative Version of the KC Fed LMCI Suggests Little Change in the Labor Market in September
Delays in the release of official government data have increased the need for alternative measures of labor market health. We create an alternative version of the Kansas City Fed’s Labor Market Conditions Indicators (LMCI) that excludes delayed government series. The restricted LMCI still provide a timely measure of labor market health that can be used to create real-time forecasts of unemployment and payroll growth. Currently, the restricted LMCI suggest little change in the labor market from August to September.
Journal Article
An Alternative Version of the KC Fed LMCI Suggests the Level of Activity Was Little Changed but Momentum Decelerated Sharply in October
Last month, we published an alternative version of the Kansas City Fed’s Labor Market Conditions Indicators (LMCI) that excludes delayed government series to continue tracking the health of the labor market in a systematic fashion. The October reading of this restricted LMCI suggests little change in the labor market, but a deceleration in labor market momentum caused by a high number of announced job cuts. This has pushed down our model's forecast of payroll employment growth for October.