Search Results
Journal Article
Back to the future with Keynes
This article analyzes Keynes's "Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren"- an essay presenting Keynes's views about economic growth into the 21st century - from the perspective of modern growth theory. I find that the implicit theoretical framework used by Keynes to form his expectations about the 21st-century world economy is remarkably close to modern growth models, featuring a stable steady-state growth path driven by technological progress. On the other hand, Keynes's forecast of employment in the 21st century is far off the mark, reflecting a mistaken view that the income ...
Journal Article
How capital taxes harm economic growth: Britain versus the United States
The different methods used by Great Britain and the United States to finance World War II had a significant impact on postwar economic growth in the two countries. In this article, Lee Ohanian discusses the evolution of war-finance policies in the two countries and examines how the different approaches?taxing capital income versus issuing government debt?led to differences in economic performance after the war.
Journal Article
Commentary on \\"Model fit and model selection\\"
Working Paper
Bretton Woods and the Reconstruction of Europe
The Bretton Woods international financial system, which was in place from roughly 1949 to 1973, is the most significant modern policy experiment to attempt to simultaneously manage international payments, international capital flows, and international currency values. This paper uses an international macroeconomic accounting methodology to study the Bretton Woods system and finds that it: (1) significantly distorted both international and domestic capital markets and hence the accumulation and allocation of capital; (2) significantly slowed the reconstruction of Europe, albeit while limiting ...
Working Paper
Can't Pay or Won't Pay? Unemployment, Negative Equity, and Strategic Default
This paper exploits matched data from the PSID on borrower mortgages with income and demographic data to quantify the relative importance of negative equity, versus lack of ability to pay, as affecting default between 2009 and 2013. These data allow us to construct household budgets sets that provide better measures of ability to pay. We use instrumental variables to quantify the impact of ability to pay, including job loss and disability, versus negative equity. Changes in ability to pay have the largest estimated effects. Job loss has an equivalent effect on default likelihood as a 35 ...
Journal Article
Theoretical issues of liquidity effects.
Working Paper
The Consequences of Bretton Woods Impediments to International Capital Mobility and the Value of Geopolitical Stability
This paper quantifies the positive and normative effects of capital controls on international economic activity under The Bretton Woods international financial system. We develop a three-region world economic model consisting of the U.S., Western Europe, and the Rest of the World. The model allows us to quantify the impact of these controls through an open economy general equilibrium capital flows accounting framework. We find these controls had large effects. Counterfactuals show that world output would have been 6% larger had the controls not been implemented. We show that the controls led ...
Journal Article
Short-run effects on money when some prices are sticky
Working Paper
The International Consequences of Bretton Woods Capital Controls and the Value of Geopolitical Stability
This paper quantifies the positive and normative effects of capital controls on international economic activity under The Bretton Woods international financial system. We develop a three region world economic model consisting of the U.S., Western Europe, and the Rest of the World. The model allows us to quantify the impact of these controls through an open economy general equilibrium capital flows accounting framework. We find these controls had large effects. Counterfactuals show that world output would have been 6% larger had the controls not been implemented. We show that the controls led ...
Discussion Paper
Who Defaults on Their Mortgage, and Why? Policy Implications for Reducing Mortgage Default
To design mortgage modification policies that successfully stem default and allow borrowers to keep their homes, policymakers need to understand why borrowers default. Is it because they?re truly unable to pay, or are they able to pay but have negative equity? {{p}} New research finds that both motives were important during the Great Recession, but that ability to pay plays the greater role, accounting for over 60 percent of defaults. Moreover, the analysis?which matches borrowers? income, employment, and assets with their mortgage characteristics and payment status?shows that cash-strapped ...