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Working Paper
Can't Pay or Won't Pay? Unemployment, Negative Equity, and Strategic Default
This paper exploits matched data from the PSID on borrower mortgages with income and demographic data to quantify the relative importance of negative equity, versus lack of ability to pay, as affecting default between 2009 and 2013. These data allow us to construct household budgets sets that provide better measures of ability to pay. We use instrumental variables to quantify the impact of ability to pay, including job loss and disability, versus negative equity. Changes in ability to pay have the largest estimated effects. Job loss has an equivalent effect on default likelihood as a 35 ...
Working Paper
Can't pay or won't pay?: unemployment, negative equity, and strategic default
The authors exploit new data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) to provide a more systematic and detailed analysis of household-level employment, income, and expense shocks to mortgage default decisions than has been possible before. These new data provide very different answers regarding the importance of employment and financial factors in the decision to default on a mortgage than have been found in previous studies that were based on crude proxies for household-level financial variables.
Working Paper
Dynamic equilibrium economies: a framework for comparing models and data
We propose a constructive, multivariate framework for assessing agreement between (generally misspecified) dynamic equilibrium models and data, which enables a complete second-order comparison of the dynamic properties of models and data. We use bootstrap algorithms to evaluate the significance of deviations between models and data, and we use goodness-of-fit criteria to produce estimators that optimize economically relevant loss functions. We provide a detailed illustrative application to modeling the U.S. cattle cycle.
Working Paper
Aggregate hours worked in OECD countries: new measurement and implications for business cycles
We build a dataset of quarterly hours worked for 14 OECD countries. We document that hours are as volatile as output, that a large fraction of labor adjustment takes place along the intensive margin, and that the volatility of hours relative to output has increased over time. We use these data to reassess the Great Recession and prior recessions. The Great Recession in many countries is a puzzle in that labor wedges are small, while those in the U.S. Great Recession - and those in previous European recessions - are much larger.
Working Paper
Revisiting Capital-Skill Complementarity, Inequality, and Labor Share
This paper revisits capital-skill complementarity and inequality, as in Krusell, Ohanian, Rios-Rull and Violante (KORV, 2000). Using their methodology, we study how well the KORV model accounts for more recent data, including the large changes in the labor's share of income that were not present in KORV. We study both labor share of gross income (as in KORV), and income net of depreciation. We also use nonfarm business sector output as an alternative measure of production to real GDP. We find strong evidence for continued capital-skill complementarity in the most recent data, and we also find ...
Working Paper
Bad Investments and Missed Opportunities? Postwar Capital Flows to Asia and Latin America
Since 1950, the economies of East Asia grew rapidly but received little international capital, while Latin America received considerable international capital even as their economies stagnated. The literature typically explains the failure of capital to flow to high growth regions as resulting from international capital market imperfections. This paper proposes a broader thesis that country-specific distortions, such as domestic labor and capital market distortions, also impact capital flows. We develop a DSGE model of Asia, Latin America, and the Rest of the World that features an ...
Journal Article
Work and taxes: allocation of time in OECD countries
Policymakers devote a great deal of attention to short-run fluctuations in the labor market. Central banks monitor indicators of labor market tightness in the conduct of monetary policy due to the potential implications for inflation. And fiscal authorities are concerned with the budget consequences of fluctuations in the labor market because they affect both revenues and expenditure programs. More generally, these fluctuations may be associated with significant losses in welfare. ; This article stems from a striking empirical observation about long-run variations in labor market outcomes: ...
Working Paper
Long-term changes in labor supply and taxes: evidence from OECD countries, 1956-2004
We document large differences in trend changes in hours worked across OECD countries over the period 1956-2004. We then assess the extent to which these changes are consistent with the intratemporal first order condition from the neoclassical growth model. We find large and trending deviations from this condition, and that the model can account for virtually none of the changes in hours worked. We then extend the model to incorporate observed changes in taxes. Our findings suggest that taxes can account for much of the variation in hours worked both over time and across countries.