Are Initial Jobless Claims a Useful Gauge of Labor Market Conditions?
McCracken, Michael W.; Ngân, Trần Khánh (2025-01-14)
For business economists, crossing 400,000 initial jobless claims can signal a reversal in labor market conditions. Is this threshold still useful?
On the Economy

Will High Inflation Persist?
McCracken, Michael W.; Ngân, Trần Khánh (2023-01-10)
The answer to when inflation will revert to its long-run average likely depends on whether we are still in the “Great Moderation” regime of less volatile inflation.
On the Economy

Using Core Inflation to Predict Headline Inflation
McCracken, Michael W.; Ngân, Trần Khánh (2023-11-28)
An analysis of CPI data suggests that a measure of inflation excluding food and energy and a measure excluding only energy are useful predictors of overall inflation 12 months in the future.
On the Economy

Core Inflation Revisited: Forecast Accuracy across Horizons
McCracken, Michael W.; Ngân, Trần Khánh (2024-03-01)
How far out can you forecast inflation? This analysis examines the accuracy of core inflation in predicting headline inflation for periods ranging from three to 24 months in the future.
On the Economy

A Hard or Soft Landing? The Answer May Lie in the Beveridge Curve
Birinci, Serdar; Ngân, Trần Khánh (2023-07-13)
The traditional Beveridge curve suggests that a sharp rise in unemployment is needed to meaningfully lower the job vacancy rate. But the curve shaped by the pandemic labor market may signal a different result.
On the Economy

Deconstructing Hours Worked: How Did Recent Recessions Differ?
Birinci, Serdar; Ngân, Trần Khánh (2023-08-01)
Weekly usual hours worked per capita recovered faster from the COVID-19 recession than from Great Recession because of stable hours per worker and a fast recovery in the employment rate.
On the Economy

Journal Article
Labor Market Tightness after the COVID-19 Recession: Differences across Industries
Birinci, Serdar; Ngân, Trần Khánh (2023-11-06)
Industries that contributed most to rising U.S. labor market tightness after the COVID-19 recession had large individual increases and high employment shares.
The Regional Economist

What Do Components of Key Inflation Measures Say about Future Inflation?
McCracken, Michael W.; Ngân, Trần Khánh (2023-05-25)
A new analysis suggests that the food expenditures category of the consumer price index could be a useful signal of future headline inflation.
On the Economy