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Working Paper
Extrapolating Long-Maturity Bond Yields for Financial Risk Measurement
Insurance companies and pension funds have liabilities far into the future and typically well beyond the longest maturity bonds trading in fixed-income markets. Such long-lived liabilities still need to be discounted, and yield curve extrapolations based on the information in observed yields can be used. We use dynamic Nelson-Siegel (DNS) yield curve models for extrapolating risk-free yield curves for Switzerland, Canada, France, and the U.S. We find slight biases in extrapolated long bond yields of a few basis points. In addition, the DNS model allows the generation of useful financial risk ...
Journal Article
Measuring Interest Rate Risk in the Very Long Term
Insurance companies write policies to cover potential risks far into the future. Because the life of these contracts can extend well beyond the 30-year maturities for the longest U.S. Treasuries, it?s difficult to measure the interest rate risk involved. A new study describes how the long-term interest rates required to evaluate such long-lived liabilities can be extrapolated from shorter-maturity bond yields using a standard yield curve model. These extrapolations are a useful tool since they have very small errors relative to the yield curve variation typically considered for risk ...
Working Paper
International Evidence on Extending Sovereign Debt Maturities
Portfolio diversification is as important to debt management as it is to asset management. In this paper, we focus on diversification of sovereign debt issuance by examining the extension of the maximum maturity of issued debt. In particular, we examine the potential costs to the U.S. Treasury of introducing 50-year bonds as a financing option. Based on evidence from foreign government bond markets with such long-term debt, our results suggest that a 50-year Treasury bond would likely trade at an average yield that is at most 20 basis points above that of a 30-year bond. Our results based on ...
Journal Article
What Would It Cost to Issue 50-year Treasury Bonds?
The longest-term U.S. Treasury bonds that investors can buy mature in 30 years. Some other countries offer up to 50-year government bonds. Examining these foreign bond markets and extrapolating U.S. Treasury yields to evaluate such longer-term options suggests that the extra costs of introducing 50-year bonds relative to conventional 30-year bonds are likely to be small on average. Because the U.S. fiscal deficit remains substantial, such longer-term debt instruments could provide an attractive opportunity to finance the growing debt in a sustainable way.