Journal Article
Economic Implications of Natural Gas Drilling in the Marcellus Shale Region
Murphy, Thomas; Kelsey, Timothy (2011-04)
The recent onset of drilling for natural gas in the Marcellus shale region is having a major impact on businesses, residents, and communities in Pennsylvania. According to Pennsylvania?s Department of Environmental Protection, since 2007 approximately 2,400 wells have been drilled in Pennsylvania to extract natural gas from the Marcellus shale formation, with the number expanding exponentially every year. More than 100 energy companies and related subcontracting firms have moved to Pennsylvania and are now active within the Marcellus shale region, bringing significant employment and business ...
Cascade , Volume 2

Briefing
Predicting Recessions
Webb, Roy H.; Murphy, Thomas; Romero, Jessie (2019)
This Economic Brief evaluates the predictive capabilities of the yield curve and several other leading indicators, including the Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI), claims for unemployment insurance, manufacturing activity, consumer lending, and CEO optimism. According to in-sample statistical analysis, several indicators — particularly the three-month/ten-year term spread and the LEI — have demonstrated significant value in predicting recessions during the past sixty years.
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Volume 19 , Issue 12 , Pages 6pgs.