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Working Paper
Understanding the Exposure at Default Risk of Commercial Real Estate Construction and Land Development Loans
We study and model the determinants of exposure at default (EAD) for large U.S. construction and land development loans from 2010 to 2017. EAD is an important component of credit risk, and commercial real estate (CRE) construction loans are more risky than income producing loans. This is the first study modeling the EAD of construction loans. The underlying EAD data come from a large, confidential supervisory dataset used in the U.S. Federal Reserve’s annual Comprehensive Capital Assessment Review (CCAR) stress tests. EAD reflects the relative bargaining ability and information sets of ...
Working Paper
The Contribution of Jump Signs and Activity to Forecasting Stock Price Volatility
We document the forecasting gains achieved by incorporating measures of signed, finite and infinite jumps in forecasting the volatility of equity prices, using high-frequency data from 2000 to 2016. We consider the SPY and 20 stocks that vary by sector, volume and degree of jump activity. We use extended HAR-RV models, and consider different frequencies (5, 60 and 300 seconds), forecast horizons (1, 5, 22 and 66 days) and the use of standard and robust-to-noise volatility and threshold bipower variation measures. Incorporating signed finite and infinite jumps generates significantly better ...
Texas among states feeling most stressed by inflation
As consumer prices have climbed at a faster rate in Texas and surrounding states than nationally—food and shelter increasing even more—Texans are feeling especially stressed about rising prices.
Dallas Fed Mobility and Engagement Index Gives Insight into COVID-19’s Economic Impact
To gain insight into the economic impact of the pandemic, we developed an index of mobility and engagement, based on geolocation data collected from a large sample of mobile devices.
Journal Article
Financial literacy: where does Texas rank?
Journal Article
Plunging oil prices: a boost for the U.S. economy, a jolt for Texas
Economic activity in the U.S. overall will benefit from the oil price collapse. The decline will, however, negatively affect oil-producing states such as Texas and North Dakota.
High inflation disproportionately hurts low-income households
Household survey results do not support Nobel laureate economist Paul Krugman's recent suggestion that low-income families “have actually been hurt less by inflation than families with higher incomes.”
Working Paper
The impact of hurricanes on housing prices: evidence from U.S. coastal cities
We investigate the effect of hurricane strikes on housing prices in U.S. coastal cities. To this end, we construct a new index of hurricane destruction which varies over time and space. Using this index and an annual, two equation, dynamic equilibrium correction panel model with area and time fixed effects, we model the effects of hurricanes on real house process and real incomes. In our model hurricanes have a direct effect on house prices and an indirect effect via a fall in local incomes. Our results show that the typical hurricane strike raises real house prices for a number of years, ...
Journal Article
High school financial literacy mandate could boost Texans' economic well-being
National surveys suggest Texans have a relatively low level of financial literacy that can adversely affect decision-making. Since state lawmakers mandated high school financial coursework in 2007, consumer credit measures of young Texas adults have improved.
Journal Article
When will the U.S. housing market stabilize?
The hope that housing markets had stabilized in mid-2010 was dashed by subsequent declines in home construction and prices (Charts 1 and 2). Homebuilding peaked about five years ago, and housing prices almost four years ago. Amid such a prolonged downturn, a key question becomes, When will the housing market stabilize and support the economic recovery? We suggest that new home construction may stabilize and start recovering slowly within the next year or so. Our econometric results also indicate that national house prices may hit bottom late this year or in early 2012 and then recover slowly.