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Journal Article
Mortgage security hedging and the yield curve
The authors find that the use of Treasury securities to hedge mortgage-backed security extension risk may have magnified increases in long-term interest rates after the tightening of monetary policy in early 1994. Substantial increases in the duration of mortgage securities appear to have caused realignments of hedges and portfolios that, in turn, had a significant impact on the short-run movements of the Treasury market, particularly for ten-year securities. This phenomenon may have altered the short-run dynamics of the yield curve and thus changed the transmission of monetary policy.
Discussion Paper
State-of-the-Field Conference on Cyber Risk to Financial Stability
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York partnered with Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs (SIPA) for the second annual State-of-the-Field Conference on Cyber Risk to Financial Stability on December 14-15, 2020. Hosted virtually due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the conference took place amidst the unfolding news of a cyberattack against a major cybersecurity vendor and software vendor, underscoring vulnerabilities from cyber risk.
Journal Article
Appendix B: Systemic risk and the financial system (background paper)
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York released a report -- New Directions for Understanding Systemic Risk -- that presents key findings from a cross-disciplinary conference that it cosponsored in May 2006 with the National Academy of Sciences' Board on Mathematical Sciences and Their Applications. ; The pace of financial innovation over the past decade has increased the complexity and interconnectedness of the financial system. This development is important to central banks, such as the Federal Reserve, because of their traditional role in addressing systemic risks to the financial system. ; ...
Report
A private lender cooperative model for residential mortgage finance
We describe a set of six design principles for the reorganization of the U.S. housing finance system and apply them to one model for replacing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac that has so far received frequent mention but little sustained analysis ? the lender cooperative utility. We discuss the pros and cons of such a model and propose a method for organizing participation in a mutual loss pool and an explicit, priced government insurance mechanism. We also discuss how these principles and this model are consistent with preserving the ?to-be-announced,? or TBA, market ? particularly if the ...
Report
The capital structure and governance of a mortgage securitization utility
We explore the capital structure and governance of a mortgage-insuring securitization utility operating with government reinsurance for systemic or ?tail? risk. The structure we propose for the replacement of the GSEs focuses on aligning incentives for appropriate pricing and transfer of mortgage risks across the private sector and between the private sector and the government. We present the justification and mechanics of a vintage-based capital structure, and assess the components of the mortgage guarantee fee, whose size we find is most sensitive to the required capital ratio and the ...
Journal Article
An international survey of stress tests
In the summer of 2000, central banks from the Group of Ten countries surveyed large international banks about their use of stress tests_a risk management tool that measures a firm's exposure to extreme movements in asset prices. The survey findings highlight the risks that most concern financial institutions and clarify how these institutions use stress tests in their overall risk management programs.
Journal Article
Mortgage refinancing and the concentration of mortgage coupons
Because of the concentrated distribution of interest rates on outstanding mortgages, modest interest rate declines in 1997 and 1998 made refinancing a smart choice for a record number of homeowners. In addition, the strong economy and the age of mortgage loans likely contributed to the surge in refinancing activity.
Journal Article
Changes in monetary policy effectiveness: evidence from large macroeconomic models
This article evaluates changes in the aggregate effectiveness of monetary policy and changes in monetary policy transmission mechanisms by examining how traditional large-scale macroeconometric models have evolved in the last ten to fifteen years. The article analyzes shifts in model structure and sheds some light on the changing relationship between policy and the real economy by reporting simulations that use different historical versions of the models.