Journal Article
The Rising Federal Funds Rate in the Current Low Long-Term Interest Rate Environment
Morris, Paul; Chien, YiLi (2017)
The low long-term yield is likely a result of high foreign demand for Treasuries rather than a near-zero federal funds rate.
Economic Synopses , Issue 10 , Pages 1-2

Journal Article
PMI and GDP: Do They Correlate for the United States? For China?
Morris, Paul; Chien, YiLi (2016)
The PMI seems to be a good, although not perfect, indicator of a country?s current economic condition.
Economic Synopses , Issue 6 , Pages 1-2

Journal Article
St. Louis Fed Steps in to Provide More-Timely Jobs Data
Gascon, Charles S.; Morris, Paul (2018)
Although these [2018] revisions [to monthly state and local employment data] were significant, they didn?t come as a surprise to us at the St. Louis Fed. We have been releasing our own estimates of regional employment growth since mid-2017, and they have generally matched up well with the revisions released every March by the BLS. Our estimates can alert policymakers of likely revisions well ahead of time, allowing them to make decisions based on information that is often more accurate than the initial releases from the BLS.
The Regional Economist , Volume 26 , Issue 2

Journal Article
Accounting for Age: The Financial Health of Millennials
Morris, Paul; Chien, YiLi (2018)
While millennials hold higher levels of student loans, education is often an investment that improves productivity and future earnings. Given these considerations, the concerns regarding millennials? spending and saving habits may be at least partially eased, as they will likely have more time in the labor force to accrue assets and pay off their debts.
The Regional Economist , Volume 26 , Issue 2

Journal Article
The Heterogeneous Impacts of Rising Inflation
Morris, Paul; Chien, YiLi (2016)
Rising inflation rates will have larger effects on some groups than others.
Economic Synopses , Issue 21 , Pages 1-2

Journal Article
Filling the Tank on Fridays May Be a Bad Idea for St. Louisans
Morris, Paul; Chien, YiLi (2016)
Gas prices in St. Louis can jump 10 percent overnight.
Economic Synopses , Issue 8 , Pages 1-2

Journal Article
Unemployment by Industry: Duration Must Be Considered, Too
Morris, Paul; Chien, YiLi (2016-01)
To better understand unemployment in key industries, not only the unemployment rate but the duration of unemployment for those in the industry should be considered. Focusing on only the former could lead to misguided efforts to help the jobless.
The Regional Economist , Issue Jan

Journal Article
Slowdown in Productivity: State vs. National Trend
Morris, Paul; Chien, YiLi (2017)
This slowdown is a national problem, but the cause and impact may not be the same for the whole country. To shed light on these matters, the data for each state?s productivity growth during the current and previous expansions are compared.
The Regional Economist , Volume 25 , Issue 1

Journal Article
Household Participation in Stock Market Varies Widely by State
Morris, Paul; Chien, YiLi (2017)
The investment decision matters for the welfare of households. Good financial decision-making could help households hedge against their income risks and achieve a better life. Although it is not necessarily the case that stock market participants are more financially sophisticated than nonparticipants, understanding the participation decisions made by households is important to both academic researchers and policymakers. An example is the shortage of retirement savings in the United States. If households cannot make the right investment decisions and, thereby, jeopardize their return on ...
The Regional Economist , Volume 25 , Issue 3

Journal Article
State Variation of Tax Deductions
Morris, Paul; Chien, YiLi (2017)
The impact of proposed tax code changes will vary significantly across states.
Economic Synopses , Issue 12 , Pages 1-2