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Conference Paper
Exchange rates and monetary policy in Singapore and Hong Kong
Journal Article
Dealing with currency crises
Journal Article
Macroeconomic shocks and business cycles in Australia
A small vector autoregression model is estimated to assess how demand and supply shocks influence Australian output and price behavior. The model is identified by assuming that aggregate demand shocks have transitory effects on output, while aggregate supply shocks have permanent effects. The paper describes how Australian macroeconomic variables respond to demand and supply shocks in the short run and in the long run. It also finds that demand shocks are dominant in determining fluctuations in Australian output at a one-quarter horizon, but supply shocks assume the larger role at longer ...
Journal Article
Trade liberalization in the Pacific Basin
Journal Article
Intervention, sterilization, and monetary control in Korea and Taiwan
This paper uses a four-variable vector autoregression model to explore how monetary authorities responded to shocks in Korea and Taiwan over the period 1981.1-1994.12. The analysis reveals that sterilization is an important element of the response to shocks to foreign assets in both economies. In particular, monetary authorities do not appear to be prepared to accept fluctuations in the exchange rate and the money supply that may result from changes in foreign assets, but more readily accept fluctuations in these variables that result from domestic credit shocks. There are also differences ...
Journal Article
Pegging and stabilization policy in developing countries
I review the case for pegging the exchange rate by surveying the recent theoretical literature on the choice of exchange rate regimes. This literature suggests that by enhancing the transparency or controllability of monetary policy, pegging may be more effective in lowering inflation expectations than other targets (such as money growth). However, under certain conditions a peg may be vulnerable to shifts in expectations. A peg also may require greater fiscal restraint by limiting the availability of inflation tax revenue; however, given certain economic distortions, policymakers may find ...
Working Paper
Was there a boom in money and credit prior to East Asia's recent currency crisis?
This paper assesses the relationship between money and credit and episodes of sharp depreciation in East Asia by (i) examining growth rates of money and credit variables around depreciation episodes; (ii) estimating the impact of money and credit variables on the probability of a share depreciation episode using logit models; (iii) evaluating the signals contained in money and credit variables prior to episodes of sharp currency depreciation. Reserve money grew rapidly prior to the 1997 currency crisis in East Asia. However, signs of a money or credit boom based on other indicators were ...
Journal Article
Macroeconomic behavior during periods of speculative pressure or realignment: evidence from Pacific Basin economies
This paper uses nonparametric tests to provide a description of the "stylized facts" associated with episodes of speculative pressure in foreign exchange markets in Pacific Basin Economies and to see whether these "stylized facts" appear to be broadly consistent with the alternative explanations for such episodes suggested in the theoretical literature. ; The empirical results are mixed, but some are nonetheless suggestive. Larger budget deficits and growth in central bank domestic credit appear to be associated with episodes of depreciation rather than episodes of appreciation or ...
Working Paper
The political economy of foreign bank entry and its impact: theory and a case study
We apply Becker's (1983) model of lobbying to show that liberalization of foreign bank entry may result from political changes and a fall in domestic bank efficiency caused by lack of competition, which raises the costs to domestic banks of restricting foreign bank entry. We also show that in equilibrium, reform may be too limited to improve efficiency. We use this model and Data Envelopment Analysis techniques to interpret the liberalization of foreign bank entry in the Philippines in 1994. Declines in banking efficiency reduced resistance to foreign bank entry, but the effects of ...
Journal Article
What explains capital flows?