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Working Paper
Limited Participation in Equity Markets and Business Cycles
This paper studies how the rise in US households' participation in equity markets affects the transmission of macroeconomic shocks to the economy. I embed limited participation into a New Keynesian framework for the US economy to analyze the individual and aggregate effects of higher participation. I derive three main results. First, participants are relatively more responsive to shocks than nonparticipants. Second, higher participation reduces the effectiveness of monetary policy. Third, with higher participation the economy becomes less volatile. I contrast key predictions of my model with ...
Discussion Paper
Modeling Bank Stock Returns: A Factor-Based Approach
In this note, we introduce a factor asset pricing model to analyze risk-adjusted returns on bank stocks. Given their high-frequency availability, bank stock returns offer a valuable lens into the risk exposures and dynamics of the banking sector.
Discussion Paper
What Do Bank Stock Returns Say About Monetary Policy Transmission?
In this note, we build on the factor-based asset pricing framework introduced in our companion piece, "Modeling Bank Stock Returns: A Factor-Based Approach" (Ehresmann, Morelli, and Wang, 2025), to examine the transmission of monetary policy (MP) shocks through bank stock returns. Specifically, we explore two core questions.
Discussion Paper
Unpacking the Effects of Bank Credit Supply Shocks on Economic Activity
In this note, we examine the effects of bank credit supply shocks on real economic activity. First, we estimate how GDP and various aggregate demand sectors respond to such shocks. Second, based on the estimated responses, we compute how much those sectors contribute to the overall response of aggregate demand to bank credit supply shocks.
Discussion Paper
Measuring Bank Credit Supply Shocks Using the Senior Loan Officer Survey
Estimating the effects that bank credit supply has on macroeconomic activity has long been an area of active research. A key challenge in pursuing this goal is the ability to measure such shocks to banks' supply of credit separately from shocks to borrowers' demand for credit.
Discussion Paper
Has Broader Stock Market Participation Changed How Interest Rates Affect the Economy?
Stock market participation in the U.S. has changed dramatically over the past four decades. In the mid-1980s, fewer than 30 percent of households held equity. By the early 2000s, more than half of U.S. households owned equity, either directly or through mutual funds, 401(k)s, and IRAs. As participation widened, the way stock market fluctuations passed through to household spending may have changed, with potential implications for how the broader economy behaves. An argument can be made that the rise in equity market participation has dampened the response of output to interest rate changes as ...