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Working Paper
Sticky Rents: A Simple Implicit-Contracts Theory
Shelter inflation, driven by continuing-tenant rents, accounts for one-third of the consumer price index (CPI). Yet continuing-tenant rent inflation, notoriously sticky, has attracted almost no theoretical attention. Standard sticky price theories cannot explain the basic facts. We provide a simple theory yielding implicit contracts as an equilibrium. The landlord will wish to renege when costs rise; reputation is unavailable to enforce the contract. A well-established mechanism serves: landlord off-equilibrium-path play might result in renter frustration and endogenous breakup. Our ...
Working Paper
Nonresponse Imputations and Related Measurement Issues in the CPI for Shelter
Shelter is the largest component of US consumer price index (CPI) inflation; therefore, the accuracy of shelter inflation is critical for the accuracy of overall CPI inflation. Nonresponse in the BLS Housing Survey, which underpins the measurement of CPI shelter inflation, has increased since 2000 and now represents roughly 40 percent of total observations. Missing rent data are currently imputed using a class-mean approach based on rent tier, potentially resulting in biased imputations, as we find that nonresponse is correlated with factors beyond rent tier. We study alternative simple ...
Working Paper
Disentangling rent index differences: data, methods, and scope
Rent measurement determines 32 percent of the CPI. Accurate rent measurement is therefore essential for accurate inflation measurement, but the CPI rent index often differs from alternative measures of rent inflation. Using repeat-rent inflation measures created from CPI microdata, we show that this discrepancy is largely explained by differences in rent growth for new tenants relative to all tenants. New-tenant rent inflation provides information about future all-tenant rent inflation, but the use of new-tenant rents is contraindicated in a cost-of-living index such as the CPI. Nevertheless, ...
Working Paper
Post-Pandemic Price Flexibility in the U.S.: Evidence and Implications for Price Setting Models
Using the micro data underlying the U.S. CPI, we document several findings about firm price-setting behavior during and following the Covid-19 pandemic, a period with the highest levels of inflation seen in around forty years. 1) The frequency of price change increased substantially as inflation took off, and has declined markedly as inflation has receded. 2) The average size of price changes also increased as price increases became more common, while the absolute value changed little. 3) The dispersion of price changes did not fall, contrary to the prediction of state-dependent models. 4) A ...
Discussion Paper
Price-Setting During the Covid Era
The Covid-19 pandemic has had enormous effects on every aspect of the economy, including inflation which has become one of the most pressing economic problems of the recovery period. Although inflation fell significantly at the onset of the pandemic, the increase seen since early 2021 has brought inflation to levels not seen since the 1980's.