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Journal Article
Consumer and Firm Perceptions of the Aggregate Labor Market Conditions
In the pre-pandemic period, measures of consumer labor market perceptions correlated well with the aggregate unemployment rate. However, for more than a year during the pandemic, consumers perceived labor markets as much tighter than the high aggregate unemployment rate implied. In contrast, there is no such a departure from the historic relation if we use the jobless unemployment rate-unemployment for reasons other than temporary layoffs-as a measure of labor market tightness. Using a measure of the firm labor market perceptions from the National Federation of Independent Business, we find ...
Journal Article
How Aware Is the Public of Labor Market Conditions?
Consumers’ perceptions of labor market conditions have historically aligned closely with the unemployment rate. However, the two diverged during the pandemic, when the unemployment rate spiked while people’s views of the labor market remained more positive. This raises the question of whether public perceptions around the labor market have become untethered from the data. Measuring labor market conditions using the jobless unemployment rate, which excludes temporary layoffs, suggests this is not the case: the historical link between people’s perceptions and measured labor market ...
Journal Article
Job Vacancies and Firms’ Labor Market Perceptions
During the post-pandemic period, the vacancy-unemployment ratio was at historically high levels, but the strength of overall labor demand was unclear. Analysis using data from the National Federation of Independent Business on firms’ perceptions of the labor market confirms that during that time firms perceived the labor market as being unusually tight relative to historical norms. As of June-August 2024, however, both firms’ perceptions and measures of labor market tightness had returned to their 2019 levels.
Journal Article
To Retire or Keep Working after a Pandemic?
Workers age 55 and older left the labor force in large numbers following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Four years later, participation within this age group has yet to return to pre-pandemic levels, despite the strongest labor market in decades. This has resulted in an estimated shortfall of nearly 2 million workers. Analysis shows that the participation shortfall is concentrated among workers in this age group without a college degree and can be explained by increased and growing retirement rates for this group, above pre-pandemic trends.