Search Results
Conference Paper
Are banking supervisory data useful for macroeconomic forecasts?
Journal Article
A simple way to estimate current-quarter GNP
This paper describes a method developed to predict the advance (first) estimate of inflation-adjusted gross national product (real GNP) using hours-worked data. Besides generating fairly accurate forecasts of advance GNP, the method has two implications. First, the Commerce Department seems to weigh the hours-worked data most heavily in its early estimates of real GNP but less and less so in its revised estimates. Second, analysts attempting to predict current-quarter outcomes in real time need to consider the availability and reliability of data at the time the forecasts are made.
Report
The tax cut illusion
Journal Article
Gramm-Rudman-Hollings' hold on budget policy: losing its grip?
Report
Breaking down the barriers to technological progress: how U.S. policy can promote higher economic growth
1996 Annual Report essay
Journal Article
Minimum wage as price support
Journal Article
Top of the Ninth: government programs and their effects on number of jobs
Comments by Preston Miller, Minneapolis Fed vice president and monetary advisor.
Working Paper
How little we know about budget policy effects