Search Results
Journal Article
A higher minimum wage- a mistake waiting to happen
Journal Article
Minimum wage as price support
Report
Economic stabilization policy: a survey
This paper reviews selected studies in the theory of macroeconomic stabilization policy and summarizes their key findings. A simple model is constructed which includes all surveyed models as special cases. All solutions are derived and described step by step.
Working Paper
Optimal income tax in a monetary economy
This study examines the shape of an optimal income tax schedule in a monetary economy. In equilibrium, money?s role is to allocate resources across generations, while a tax-transfer scheme serves as a form of social insurance. It is found that the optimal real income tax with money can be progressive.
Working Paper
The policy procedure of the FOMC: a critique
Working Paper
How little we know about budget policy effects
Journal Article
Using monthly data to improve quarterly model forecasts
This article describes a new way to use monthly data to improve the national forecasts of quarterly economic models. This new method combines the forecasts of a monthly model with those of a quarterly model using weights that maximize forecasting accuracy. While none of the method's steps is new, it is the first method to include all of them. It is also the first method to be shown to improve quarterly model forecasts in a statistically significant way. And it is the first systematic forecasting method to be shown, statistically, to forecast as well as the popular survey of major economic ...
Report
Predicting turning points
This paper presents a new method for predicting turning points. The paper formally defines a turning point; develops a probit model for estimating the probability of a turning point; and then examines both the in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting performance of the model. The model performs better than some other methods for predicting turning points.
Monograph
TIP: the wrong way to fight inflation
originally appeared in the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review, Spring 1978
Working Paper
A monetarist approach to federal budget control