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Consumption, Savings, and Earnings Responses to Financial Windfalls
We estimate the causal effects of a financial windfall on consumption, savings, and wage earnings using linked administrative data on a large sample of Canadian lottery winners. Using separate linkages of lottery winners to income tax records and credit bureau data, we estimate how lottery winnings affect consumption measured through credit card spending, savings through financial asset accumulation and debt repayment, and wage earnings from tax records. We then examine how these responses vary across the income distribution. We find that high-income individuals allocated a larger share of ...
Discussion Paper
Consumer use of fraud alerts and credit freezes: an empirical analysis
Fraud alerts ? initial fraud alerts, extended fraud alerts, and credit freezes ? help protect consumers from the consequences of identity theft. At the same time, they may impose costs on lenders, credit bureaus, and, in some instances, consumers. We analyze a unique data set of anonymized credit bureau files to understand how consumers use these alerts. We document the frequency and persistence of fraud alerts and credit freezes. Using the experience of the data breach at the South Carolina Department of Revenue, we show that consumers who file initial fraud alerts or credit freezes likely ...
Discussion Paper
Can credit cards with access to complimentary credit score information benefit consumers and lenders?
Barclaycard U.S. is one of a growing number of banks offering cardholders free access to their FICO Credit Scores with credit card products. On November 19, 2014, Paul Wilmore of Barclaycard U.S. presented Barclays? rationale for offering this feature and provided his perspective on its development. He also discussed how consumers responded to this feature in terms of their spending, repayment behavior, and lifespan and intensity of their relationship with the bank. According to Wilmore, program participation is correlated with increased card spending, decreased credit utilization and ...
Working Paper
Financial Fraud Through the Lens of Extended Fraud Alerts
We use extended fraud alerts in anonymized credit reports to examine how identity theft, and subsequent clean-up, affects consumers’ credit outcomes. The immediate effects of fraud for these consumers are negative, relatively small, and transitory. After placing an alert, these consumers experience persistent declines in delinquencies and a 12-point increase in credit scores, and 11 percent of filers become prime consumers. Many of these consumers take advantage of their improved creditworthiness and obtain additional credit. Although alert filers have larger balances, their performance on ...
Working Paper
The Opposing Effects of Wealth on Younger and Older Entrepreneurs
Using wealth windfalls from lottery winnings and matched employer-employee tax files, we compare the effect of additional wealth on the entrepreneurial activity of older and younger individuals. We find that additional wealth leads older winners (aged 55 to 64) to reduce business ownership and growth (as measured by sales, revenue, and employees). In contrast, extra wealth increases younger winners’ (aged 21 to 54) business ownership, but it has no effect on their business growth. The increase in business activity of a young winner does not offset the negative growth for an older winner, ...
Working Paper
Personal Bankruptcy as a Real Option
We provide a novel explanation to the longstanding puzzle of the ?missing bankruptcy ?lings.? Even though a household with a negative net worth will receive contemporaneous bene?t from bankruptcy, there may be greater insurance value from delaying the ?ling. Household bankruptcy is thus an American-style put option, which is not necessarily exercised even if the option is "in the money." Based on the value functions in the household?s dynamic programming problem, we formulate the value of the bankruptcy option as well as the exercise price. We estimate a life-cycle model in which households ...
Working Paper
Out of sight, out of mind: consumer reaction to news on data breaches and identity theft
We use the 2012 South Carolina Department of Revenue data breach to study how data breaches and news coverage about them affect consumers? take-up of fraud protections. In this instance, we find that a remarkably large share of consumers who were directly affected by the breach acquired fraud protection services immediately after the breach. In contrast, the response of consumers who were not directly exposed to the breach, but who were exposed to news about it, was negligible. Even among consumers directly exposed to the data breach, the incremental effect of additional news about the breach ...
Working Paper
Does the Relative Income of Peers Cause Financial Distress? Evidence from Lottery Winners and Neighboring Bankruptcies
SUPERSEDED BY WP 18-22 We examine whether relative income differences among peers can generate financial distress. Using lottery winnings as plausibly exogenous variations in the relative income of peers, we find that the dollar magnitude of a lottery win of one neighbor increases subsequent borrowing and bankruptcies among other neighbors. We also examine which factors may mitigate lenders? bankruptcy risk in these neighborhoods. We show that bankruptcy filers can obtain secured but not unsecured debt, and lenders provide secured credit to low-risk but not high-risk debtors. In addition, we ...
Working Paper
How do exogenous shocks cause bankruptcy? Balance sheet and income statement channels
We are the first to examine whether exogenous shocks cause personal bankruptcy through the balance sheet channel and/or the income statement channel. For identification, we examine the effect of exogenous, politically motivated government payments on 200,000 Canadian bankruptcy filings. We find support for the balance sheet channel, in that receipt of the exogenous cash increases the net balance sheet benefits of bankruptcy (unsecured debt discharged minus liquidated assets forgone) required by filers. We also find limited support for the income statement channel, in that exogenous payments ...
Working Paper
Identity theft as a teachable moment
This paper examines how instances of identity theft that are sufficiently severe to induce consumers to place an extended fraud alert in their credit reports affect their risk scores, delinquencies, and other credit bureau variables on impact and thereafter. We show that for many consumers these effects are relatively small and transitory. However, for a significant number of consumers, especially those with lower risk scores prior to the event, there are more persistent and generally positive effects on credit bureau variables, including risk scores. We argue that these positive changes for ...