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Journal Article
How Fast Will Banks Adopt New Technology This Time?
We offer insight into this question of what might happen with respect to the introduction of new technologies by looking back at what did happen following introduction of an earlier technology: bank websites. If the past is prologue, this may foretell how technological innovations in banking will be diffused in the future.
Journal Article
Jumbo CDs play tiny role in policing risky banks ... so far
Reforms enacted after the S&L crisis have yet to persuade holders of jumbo CDs to monitor their banks' risky practices.
Journal Article
Should we ax the capital gains tax?
Working Paper
Can feedback from the jumbo-CD market improve bank surveillance?
We examine the value of jumbo certificate-of-deposit (CD) signals in bank surveillance. To do so, we first construct proxies for default premiums and deposit runoffs and then rank banks based on these risk proxies. Next, we rank banks based on the output of a logit model typical of the econometric models used in off-site surveillance. Finally, we compare jumbo-CD rankings and surveillance-model rankings as tools for predicting financial distress. Our comparisons include eight out-of-sample test windows during the 1990s. We find that rankings obtained from jumbo-CD data would not have improved ...
Journal Article
Why Are More Credit Unions Buying Community Banks?
This trend is growing but remains small because of regulatory and business-model challenges.
Working Paper
The role of a CAMEL downgrade model in bank surveillance
This article examines the potential contribution to bank supervision of a model designed to predict which banks will have their supervisory ratings downgraded in future periods. Bank supervisors rely on various tools of off-site surveillance to track the condition of banks under their jurisdiction between on-site examinations, including econometric models. One of the models that the Federal Reserve System uses for surveillance was estimated to predict bank failures. Because bank failures have been so rare during the last decade, the coefficients on this model have been "frozen" since 1991. ...
Journal Article
Community bank lending during the financial crisis
The total volume of loans held by community banks peaked in 2008 and dropped during the financial crisis and Great Recession. Total loans bottomed out in 2011 and, as of December 2012, have only recovered to a level roughly 10 percent below their 2008 peak. During this period, both demand and supply factors undoubtedly played roles in the change in bank lending.
Journal Article
Market Concentration and Its Impact on Community Banks
This article explores the effect that market concentration has on the ability of community banks to expand in their small markets, especially rural ones. For small banking markets, a community bank is often prevented from selling to a crosstown rival because of market concentration regulations, even if it might be in the best interest of consumers for other reasons. For example, compared to an in-market community bank, a large out-of-market bank holding company may have less interest in local institutions and less knowledge about market conditions and the reputation and quality of local ...
Journal Article
The future of community banks: lessons from banks that thrived during the recent financial crisis
The authors study the distinguishing features of community banks that maintained the highest supervisory ratings during the recent financial crisis (2006 to 2011). They identify balance sheet and income statement ratios that separate these thriving banks from other community banks and supplement that analysis with detailed interview evidence from a sample of thriving banks. They conclude that there is a strong future for well-run community banks and that the banks that prosper will be the ones with strong commitments to maintaining risk control standards in all economic environments. There is ...
Journal Article
Could a CAMELS downgrade model improve off-site surveillance?
The Federal Reserve?s off-site surveillance system includes two econometric models that are collectively known as the System for Estimating Examination Ratings (SEER). One model, the SEER risk rank model, uses the latest financial statements to estimate the probability that each Fed-supervised bank will fail in the next two years. The other component, the SEER rating model, uses the latest financial statements to produce a ?shadow? CAMELS rating for each supervised bank. Banks identified as risky by either model receive closer supervisory scrutiny than other state-member banks.> Because many ...