Journal Article
Consensus forecasts: tyranny of the majority?
McNees, Stephen K. (1987-11)
New England Economic Review , Issue Nov , Pages 15-21

Journal Article
How large are economic forecast errors?
McNees, Stephen K. (1992-07)
Opinion about the reliability of economic forecasts ranges widely. Some argue that they are literally worthless, at the same time that most forecasters can point to a sequence of near perfect predictions. How much confidence should one place in economic forecasts? The errors vary with many factors. ; A crucial determinant of the size of forecast errors is the forecast period; some periods are very difficult to predict while others are relatively easy. By far the largest errors were the sustained underestimations of the acceleration of inflation in 1973-75 and again in 1978-80. In addition, ...
New England Economic Review , Issue Jul , Pages 25-42

Journal Article
Man vs. model? The role of judgment in forecasting
McNees, Stephen K. (1990-07)
This article presents evidence on the role that judgmental adjustments play in macroeconomic forecast accuracy. It starts by contrasting the predictive records of four prominent forecasters who adjust their models with those of three models that are used mechanically. The adjusted forecasts tend to be more accurate overall, although important exceptions can be found. Next the article compares adjusted forecasts with those generated mechanically by the same models. Again, with some significant exceptions, judgmental adjustments improve accuracy more often than not. ; The article closes by ...
New England Economic Review , Issue Jul , Pages 41-52

Journal Article
A forward-looking monetary policy reaction function: continuity and change
McNees, Stephen K. (1992-11)
This study suggests that U.S. monetary policy has been influenced by forecasts of and past experience with three broad factors: inflation, economic activity, and the monetary aggregates. The influence of each factor has varied, however, within this common theme. In the past 22 years at least two specific changes have occurred: the October 1979 shift to greater emphasis on a narrow measure of money and a shift in the early 1980s from M1 targeting to M2. ; The author models monetary policy econometrically, testing the influence of numerous factors on monetary policy and investigating whether a ...
New England Economic Review , Issue Nov , Pages 3-13

Journal Article
How accurate are macroeconomic forecasts?
McNees, Stephen K. (1988-07)
New England Economic Review , Issue Jul , Pages 15-36

Journal Article
The 1990-91 recession in historical perspective
McNees, Stephen K. (1992-01)
Nearly a decade has passed since the last U.S. recession ended, and memories of prior recessionary experiences may now have grown dim. The objective of this article is twofold: to provide a concise review of post-World War II recessions, with an eye to identifying their most distinctive features as well as their common elements; and to investigate the extent to which knowledge of a recessionary period provides insight into the subsequent expansion. ; The articles conclusions are necessarily tentative as the date the 1990-91 recession ended had not been officially designated at the time of its ...
New England Economic Review , Issue Jan , Pages 3-22

Journal Article
Forecasting cyclical turning points: the record in the past three recessions
McNees, Stephen K. (1987-03)
New England Economic Review , Issue Mar , Pages 31-40

Journal Article
How well do financial markets predict the inflation rate?
McNees, Stephen K. (1989-09)
New England Economic Review , Issue Sep , Pages 31-46

Journal Article
Estimating GNP: the trade-off between timeliness and accuracy
McNees, Stephen K. (1986-01)
New England Economic Review , Issue Jan , Pages 3-10

Journal Article
\"Whither New England\"?
McNees, Stephen K.; Tootell, Geoffrey M. B. (1991-07)
This article attempts to identify precursors, or indicators, of New England employment. The predictive power of a diverse array of variables is calculated and compared. However, because no single variable is likely to contain all information of predictive value, the article then explores alternative methods of combining several variables into an index or statistical "model" of New England employment growth. The variables are separated into regional, national, and expectational in order to measure the predictive value of each type of information. ; In both in-sample and out-of-sample tests, ...
New England Economic Review , Issue Jul , Pages 11-26