Journal Article
\"Whither New England\"?
McNees, Stephen K.; Tootell, Geoffrey M. B. (1991-07)
This article attempts to identify precursors, or indicators, of New England employment. The predictive power of a diverse array of variables is calculated and compared. However, because no single variable is likely to contain all information of predictive value, the article then explores alternative methods of combining several variables into an index or statistical "model" of New England employment growth. The variables are separated into regional, national, and expectational in order to measure the predictive value of each type of information. ; In both in-sample and out-of-sample tests, ...
New England Economic Review , Issue Jul , Pages 11-26

Journal Article
Forecasting cyclical turning points: the record in the past three recessions
McNees, Stephen K. (1987-03)
New England Economic Review , Issue Mar , Pages 31-40

Journal Article
Prospective nominal GNP targeting: an alternative framework for monetary policy
McNees, Stephen K. (1987-09)
New England Economic Review , Issue Sep , Pages 3-9

Journal Article
Assessment of the \"official\" economic forecasts
McNees, Stephen K. (1995-07)
While many studies have evaluated the accuracy of "official" economic forecasts, this study may be the first published analysis of the Federal Open Market Committee's "Humphrey- Hawkins" forecasts. In this article, the "official" forecasts generated by the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) are analyzed and compared to each other as well as to forecasts made by the private sector. The findings for the one-year-ahead forecasts reconfirm that the CEA, CBO, and private sector forecasts are about equally ...
New England Economic Review , Issue Jul , Pages 13-23

Journal Article
Modeling the Fed: a forward- looking monetary policy reaction function
McNees, Stephen K. (1986-11)
New England Economic Review , Issue Nov , Pages 3-8

Journal Article
A forward-looking monetary policy reaction function: continuity and change
McNees, Stephen K. (1992-11)
This study suggests that U.S. monetary policy has been influenced by forecasts of and past experience with three broad factors: inflation, economic activity, and the monetary aggregates. The influence of each factor has varied, however, within this common theme. In the past 22 years at least two specific changes have occurred: the October 1979 shift to greater emphasis on a narrow measure of money and a shift in the early 1980s from M1 targeting to M2. ; The author models monetary policy econometrically, testing the influence of numerous factors on monetary policy and investigating whether a ...
New England Economic Review , Issue Nov , Pages 3-13

Journal Article
How accurate are macroeconomic forecasts?
McNees, Stephen K. (1988-07)
New England Economic Review , Issue Jul , Pages 15-36

Journal Article
How fast can we grow?
McNees, Stephen K. (1991-01)
Nearly thirty years ago, Arthur Okun posed the question, "How much output can the economy produce under conditions of full employment?" He offered a "simple and direct" answer that now, with the benefit of hindsight, seems outmoded and inadequate. This article argues that a minor modification of Okuns procedure based on demographics can adequately account for changes in the potential growth rate over the last 35 years and provide an idea of what to expect in the next ten years. Specifically, it is suggested that changes in the composition and rate of growth of the working-age population ...
New England Economic Review , Issue Jan , Pages 3-14

Journal Article
How large are economic forecast errors?
McNees, Stephen K. (1992-07)
Opinion about the reliability of economic forecasts ranges widely. Some argue that they are literally worthless, at the same time that most forecasters can point to a sequence of near perfect predictions. How much confidence should one place in economic forecasts? The errors vary with many factors. ; A crucial determinant of the size of forecast errors is the forecast period; some periods are very difficult to predict while others are relatively easy. By far the largest errors were the sustained underestimations of the acceleration of inflation in 1973-75 and again in 1978-80. In addition, ...
New England Economic Review , Issue Jul , Pages 25-42

Journal Article
How well do financial markets predict the inflation rate?
McNees, Stephen K. (1989-09)
New England Economic Review , Issue Sep , Pages 31-46