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Report
On the Nature of Entrepreneurship
This paper provides insights into the nature of entrepreneurship using a novel panel dataset based on U.S. administrative data from the Internal Revenue Service and the Social Security Administration. These data are used to analyze patterns of income growth and determinants of entrepreneurial choice for a large population of business owners. Earlier studies relying on household survey data have been limited by small samples, short panels, and income top-coding and, as a result, have focused on the typical self-employed individual rather than the typical dollar earned in self-employment. ...
Journal Article
Measurement with minimal theory
Applied macroeconomists interested in identifying the sources of business cycle fluctuations typically have no more than 40 or 50 years of data at a quarterly frequency. With sample sizes that small, identifi cation may not be possible even with correctly specifi ed representations of the data. In this article, I investigate whether small samples are indeed a problem for some commonly used statistical representations. I compare three?a vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA), an unrestricted state space, and a restricted state space?that are all consistent with the same prototype ...
Report
Approximating Transition Dynamics with Discrete Choice
This paper develops a method to analyze policy reforms in environments with discrete choice, such as occupational choice or default. Computing transition paths in these settings is computationally challenging, particularly in models with substantial heterogeneity and many endogenous states. We extend perturbation methods to handle discrete choice by appropriately tracking both intensive-margin changes conditional on discrete choices that are relatively small and extensive-margin changes resulting from a switch in a discrete choice that are relatively large. The method is fast, scalable, and ...
Report
Comment on Christian’s “Human Capital Accounting in the United States: 1994–2006”
Michael Christian's paper presents a human capital account for the United States for the period 1994 to 2006. The main findings are twofold. First, the total human capital stock is about three-quarters of a quadrillion dollars in 2006. This estimate is roughly 55 times gross domestic product (GDP) and 16 times the net stock of fixed assets plus consumer durables. His second finding is that the measures of gross investment in human capital are sensitive to alternative assumptions about enrollment patterns. In my comments, I emphasize the need for greater interaction between human capital ...
Journal Article
Is the stock market overvalued?
The value of U.S. corporate equity in the first half of 2000 was close to 1.8 times U.S. gross national product (GNP). Some stock market analysts have argued that the market is overvalued at this level. We use a growth model with an explicit corporate sector and find that the market is correctly valued. In theory, the market value of equity plus debt liabilities should equal the value of productive assets plus debt assets. Since the net value of debt is currently low, the market value of equity should be approximately equal to the market value of productive assets. We find that the market ...
Working Paper
A critique of structural VARs using real business cycle theory
The main substantive finding of the recent structural vector autoregression literature with a differenced specification of hours (DSVAR) is that technology shocks lead to a fall in hours. Researchers have used these results to argue that business cycle models in which technology shocks lead to a rise in hours should be discarded. We evaluate the DSVAR approach by asking, is the specification derived from this approach misspecified when the data are generated by the very model the literature is trying to discard? We find that it is misspecified. Moreover, this misspecification is so great that ...
Journal Article
Changes in hours worked, 1950?2000
This article describes changes in the number of average weekly hours of market work per person in the United States since World War II. Overall, this number has been roughly constant; for various groups, however, it has shifted dramatically - from males to females, from older people to younger people, and from single- to married-person households. The article provides a detailed look at how the lifetime pattern of work hours has changed since 1950 for different demographic groups. This article also documents several factors that lead to the reallocation of hours worked across groups: ...
Report
Openness, technology capital, and development
In this paper, we extend the growth model to include firm-specific technology capital and use it to assess the gains from opening to foreign direct investment. A firm's technology capital is its unique know-how from investing in research and development, brands, and organization capital. What distinguishes technology capital from other forms of capital is the fact that a firm can use it simultaneously in multiple domestic and foreign locations. Foreign technology capital is exploited by permitting foreign direct investment by multinationals. In both steady-state and transitional analyses, the ...