Search Results
Journal Article
Measuring Fiscal Impetus: The Great Recession in Historical Context
The authors use a measure of fiscal impetus to examine how fiscal policy has behaved during business cycles in the past, how it responded to the most recent recession, and how it is likely to evolve over the next several years. They find that policy was more expansionary than average during the 2007 recession and has been significantly more contractionary than average during the recovery. By the end of 2012, fiscal impetus was below its historical business-cycle average and it is forecast to remain depressed well into the future.
Journal Article
State budgets and the business cycle: implications for the federal balanced budgets amendment debate
Balanced budgets and proponents often use the experience of the states with balanced budget restrictions as an argument in favor of a federal balanced budget amendment. However, the state experience is not directly relevant to the federal government. State restriction are more lenient than those considered at the federal level, and many of the techniques used by the states to blame their budgets over the business cycle are not available to the federal government.
Journal Article
How do EITC recipients spend their refunds?
The authors determine what items are purchased using the earned income tax credit (EITC)?one of the largest sources of public support for lower-income working families in the U.S. They find that recipient households? EITC payments are used primarily for vehicle purchases and transportation spending, both of which are crucial to job access and consistent with the EITC?s prowork goals.
Journal Article
How do benefit adjustments for government transfer programs compare with their participants' inflation experiences?
The authors measure the inflation experienced by demographic groups that likely received benefits from major government transfer programs during the period 1980?2010. They then compare the group-specific inflation measures with the transfer programs? benefit adjustments, which are typically based on aggregate inflation. The extent to which the program benefits keep up with group inflation differs across the programs and their targeted groups, depending on both the ways in which the benefits are adjusted for price changes and the spending patterns of the various groups.
Journal Article
Variations in consumer sentiment across demographic groups
Consumer sentiment is one of the many macroeconomic indicators tracked by policymakers and the public. The aggregate numbers in consumer sentiment indexes, such as the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment, conceal a wealth of demographic-specific information. The authors' findings suggest that index disaggregation by group matters because consumer sentiment varies systematically by demographic group.
Journal Article
Unprepared for boom or bust: understanding the current state fiscal crisis
The headlines concerning state government finances have become increasingly alarming since mid-2001. This article discusses the roots of the current state fiscal crisis by looking at the decisions made by state government leaders during the long expansion. The author suggests increased use of rainy day funds as a way to avoid future crisis.
Newsletter
State tax revenues over the business cycle: patterns and policy responses
State tax revenues have become far more sensitive to changing economic conditions since the turn of the century. The authors document this increasing volatility and offer suggestions for what state governments might do to better manage their tax revenues to avoid or minimize dramatic fiscal downturns.
Newsletter
Welfare reform and state budgets
Newsletter
The Fiscal Cliff and the Dynamics of Income
At the end of 2012, certain income tax policies were set to end and others to become effective. Central among these was the planned expiration of the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts (the ?Bush tax cuts?), which had been extended for two years in 2010.
Newsletter
Who would be affected by soda taxes?
In 2009-10, 17 states considered expanding taxation on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) as a potential source of funds and a means to curb obesity. This article examines the various types of soda tax proposals, the underlying economic theory, and the anticipated impact of the proposed taxes on different population groups.