Journal Article
A report on economic conditions in the Louisville zone
Ricketts, Lowell R.; Arias, Maria A.; Kliesen, Kevin L.; Shell, Hannah; Eubanks, Daniel; McGillicuddy, Joseph; Neely, Michelle Clark; Cooke, Diana A. (2015-04)
Burgundy Books , Issue 2Q

Journal Article
Is Inflation Running Hot or Cold?
Ricketts, Lowell R.; McGillicuddy, Joseph (2015)
Changes in the aggregate price level can be traced back to changes in the underlying components.
Economic Synopses , Issue 16

Journal Article
A report on economic conditions in the St. Louis zone
Ricketts, Lowell R.; Arias, Maria A.; Kliesen, Kevin L.; Kerdnunvong, Usa; Shell, Hannah; Eubanks, Daniel; McGillicuddy, Joseph; Neely, Michelle Clark (2015-04)
Burgundy Books , Issue 2Q

Journal Article
The Housing Supply Puzzle: Part 1, Divergent Markets
McGillicuddy, Joseph; Karson, Evan; Ravikumar, B. (2018)
Over the past several months, the pace of U.S. home sales has shown few signs of growth, and as of February 2018, overall home sales were only slightly higher compared with year-ago levels.
Economic Synopses , Issue 9 , Pages 1-2

Journal Article
Oil Prices: Is Supply or Demand Behind the Slump?
McGillicuddy, Joseph; Badel, Alejandro (2015)
A standard decomposition suggests the role of oil supply (understood as the current physical availability of crude) has been small.
Economic Synopses , Issue 8

Journal Article
A report on economic conditions in the St. Louis zone
Ricketts, Lowell R.; Arias, Maria A.; Kliesen, Kevin L.; Kerdnunvong, Usa; Shell, Hannah; Eubanks, Daniel; McGillicuddy, Joseph; Neely, Michelle Clark (2015-07)
Burgundy Books , Issue 3Q

Working Paper
Binary Conditional Forecasts
McCracken, Michael W.; Owyang, Michael T.; McGillicuddy, Joseph (2019-10-01)
While conditional forecasting has become prevalent both in the academic literature and in practice (e.g., bank stress testing, scenario forecasting), its applications typically focus on continuous variables. In this paper, we merge elements from the literature on the construction and implementation of conditional forecasts with the literature on forecasting binary variables. We use the Qual-VAR [Dueker (2005)], whose joint VAR-probit structure allows us to form conditional forecasts of the latent variable which can then be used to form probabilistic forecasts of the binary variable. We apply ...
Working Papers , Paper 2019-29

Journal Article
A report on economic conditions in the Memphis zone
Arias, Maria A.; Kliesen, Kevin L.; Crews, Jonas C.; Kerdnunvong, Usa; Shell, Hannah; Eubanks, Daniel; McGillicuddy, Joseph; Neely, Michelle Clark (2015-07)
Burgundy Books , Issue 3Q

Journal Article
A report on economic conditions in the Louisville zone
Ricketts, Lowell R.; Arias, Maria A.; Kliesen, Kevin L.; Kerdnunvong, Usa; Shell, Hannah; Eubanks, Daniel; McGillicuddy, Joseph; Neely, Michelle Clark (2015-07)
Burgundy Books , Issue 3Q

Journal Article
The Housing Supply Puzzle: Part 3, Price Gaps
McGillicuddy, Joseph; Karson, Evan; Ravikumar, B. (2018)
In Part 1 ("Divergent Markets") of this series, we argue that the recent divergence in housing supplies likely signals a decline in inventories of lower- and middle-tier homes nationwide. Part 2 ("Rental Demand") discusses the role that rental-market developments have played in exacerbating this shortage. In this third and final essay, we document another trend that might have contributed to the scarcity of lower- and middle-tier homes: the widening price gaps between different housing tiers.
Economic Synopses , Issue 11 , Pages 1-2