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Working Paper
Targeting vs. instrument rules for monetary policy
Svensson (2003) argues strongly that specific targeting rules*first order optimality conditions for a specific objective function and model*are normatively superior to instrument rules for the conduct of monetary policy. That argument is based largely upon four main objections to the latter plus a claim concerning the relative interest-instrument variability entailed by the two approaches. The present paper considers the four objections in turn, and advances arguments that contradict all of them. Then in the paper*s analytical sections, it is demonstrated that the variability claim is ...
Working Paper
Money and inflation: some critical issues
We consider what, if any, relationship there is between monetary aggregates and inflation, and whether there is any substantial reason for modifying the current mainstream mode of policy analysis, which frequently does not consider monetary aggregates at all. We begin by considering the body of thought known as the "quantity theory of money." The quantity theory centers on the prediction that there will be a long-run proportionate reaction of the price level to an exogenous increase in the nominal money stock. The nominal homogeneity conditions that deliver the quantity-theory result are ...
Journal Article
Panel discussion I: what have we learned since October 1979?
Journal Article
Indeterminancy from inflation forecast targeting : problem or pseudo-problem?
Contemporary literature on monetary policy analysis concludes that use of an interest rate policy rule that responds to expected inflation in some future period may generate indeterminacy - a multiplicity of stable rational expectations (RE) solutions. By contrast, this article argues that in these analyses only one of the solutions possesses the property of learnability, which is necessary for the plausibility of any RE solution since its absence implies that there is no way for individuals to obtain enough information to form expectations that would support the solution in question. Thus ...
Journal Article
Unit roots in macroeconomic time series: some critical issues
Journal Article
Should central banks raise their inflation targets? Some relevant issues
Several arguments are relevant. (1) In the absence of the zero lower bound (ZLB), the optimal steady-state inflation rate, according to standard reasoning, lies between deflation at the steady-state real interest rate and the Calvo-model value of zero, with calibration indicating a larger weight on the latter. (2) An attractive modification of the Calvo equation would imply that the weight on the second of these should be zero. (3) There may be some scope for monetary policy to be effective even at the ZLB. (4) Elimination of currency is feasible and would remove the ZLB constraint. (5) ...