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Working Paper
Targeting vs. instrument rules for monetary policy
Svensson (2003) argues strongly that specific targeting rules*first order optimality conditions for a specific objective function and model*are normatively superior to instrument rules for the conduct of monetary policy. That argument is based largely upon four main objections to the latter plus a claim concerning the relative interest-instrument variability entailed by the two approaches. The present paper considers the four objections in turn, and advances arguments that contradict all of them. Then in the paper*s analytical sections, it is demonstrated that the variability claim is ...
Working Paper
Money and inflation: some critical issues
We consider what, if any, relationship there is between monetary aggregates and inflation, and whether there is any substantial reason for modifying the current mainstream mode of policy analysis, which frequently does not consider monetary aggregates at all. We begin by considering the body of thought known as the "quantity theory of money." The quantity theory centers on the prediction that there will be a long-run proportionate reaction of the price level to an exogenous increase in the nominal money stock. The nominal homogeneity conditions that deliver the quantity-theory result are ...
Journal Article
The case for rules in the conduct of monetary policy: a concrete example
A policy rule can be activist; the distinction between rules and discretion depends on the stage at which optimization calculations enter the policy process. Here a specific monetary rule is proposed, one that sets the monetary base each quarter in a manner designed to keep nominal aggregate demand growing smoothly at a noninflationary rate. Simulations with a simple estimated model suggest that the proposed rule would have performed well over the period 1954-85, despite financial innovations and regulatory change.
Journal Article
Macroeconomics after a decade of rational expectations : some critical issues
An abstract for this article is not available.
Journal Article
Theoretical analysis of the demand of money
The paper summarizes current mainstream views concerning the theory of money demand. A utility maximizing household chooses to hold money because it facilitates transactions, allowing it to economize on shopping time. Two types of implied money demand functions are derived: a proper demand function with arguments exogenous to the household and a conventional portfolio balance relationship. The historical evolution of ideas pertaining to money demand is reviewed. A final section considers ongoing controversies concerning the role of uncertainty, the use of overlapping generations and ...
Journal Article
Panel discussion I: what have we learned since October 1979?
Journal Article
Indeterminancy from inflation forecast targeting : problem or pseudo-problem?
Contemporary literature on monetary policy analysis concludes that use of an interest rate policy rule that responds to expected inflation in some future period may generate indeterminacy - a multiplicity of stable rational expectations (RE) solutions. By contrast, this article argues that in these analyses only one of the solutions possesses the property of learnability, which is necessary for the plausibility of any RE solution since its absence implies that there is no way for individuals to obtain enough information to form expectations that would support the solution in question. Thus ...