Search Results
Journal Article
Historical Disinflation Episodes: Which Falls First, Goods or Services?
What does it take to bring inflation back down to target? Historically, goods inflation slows first, followed by a longer period in which services inflation slows.
The Changing Composition of Disability among America’s Workers
Employment has increased at a higher rate among the disabled population than the broader population since the onset of COVID-19. Which types of disabilities are associated with the recent increase?
Working Paper
The Beige Book and the Business Cycle: Using Beige Book Anecdotes to Construct Recession Probabilities
The Federal Reserve releases the Beige Book prior to each Federal Open Market Committee meeting. The report is a narrative based on anecdotal and qualitative information collected from a wide range of contacts in each of the 12 Federal Reserve Districts. We take the lexicon approach to text analysis to create sentiment indexes that track changes in economic conditions from the very first Beige Book in May 1970 to the most recent (at the time of writing) in October 2024. We create additional indexes to account for various current-event shocks, such as political events or natural disasters that ...
Eighth District Businesses Report Moderating Inflationary Pressures
A recent survey of firms in the Eighth District suggests that consumer price growth is expected to keep slowing in 2024, though most firms also reported that they still have at least some ability to pass on higher costs.
What’s Behind the Recent Slump in Consumer Sentiment?
Though some indicators point to a strong economy, consumer sentiment has slumped. An analysis suggests this may be due to weaker growth in real personal income.
Journal Article
Labor Market Conditions Have Eased, but Why? A State-Level View
An analysis examines how changes in labor supply and labor demand contributed to loosening state and national job market conditions in 2023.