Working Paper
Implications of Inflation Dynamics for Monetary Policy Strategies
Chung, Hess T.; Lepetit, Antoine; Martin, Fernando M.; Jones, Callum J. (2025-08-22)
This paper considers robust monetary policy strategies both in situations of low demand and low inflation and when economic developments pose a tradeoff between inflation and output stabilization. We proceed in two parts. First, our quantitative analysis suggests that asymmetric average inflation targeting can provide modest benefits over other inflation-targeting strategies when the risks associated with the effective lower bound remain significant. Second, motivated by the recent experience of persistent supply shocks and rapid increases in inflation, we describe the main qualitative ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2025-072

Report
Sovereign debt: a modern Greek tragedy
Martin, Fernando M.; Waller, Christopher J. (2011)
Essay from the 2011 Annual Report.
Annual Report

Journal Article
Monetary Policy and the Output Gap
Martin, Fernando M. (2014)
Overestimating how far the economy is away from its potential unnecessarily risks delaying the end of unusual monetary accommodation.
Economic Synopses , Issue 27

Journal Article
Projecting GDP Growth Using Trends in Labor Force Participation
Martin, Fernando M. (2014)
Measuring the output gap without accounting for the trend in labor force participation may lead to persistent misdiagnoses of the state of the economy.
Economic Synopses , Issue 26

Journal Article
Private Investment and the Great Recession
Martin, Fernando M. (2016)
Unlike other components of private investment, residential investment has not yet recovered and remains well below its pre-recession level.
Economic Synopses , Issue 1

Journal Article
Winners and losers in the Great Recession
Martin, Fernando M. (2013)
For a significant number of industries - representing roughly a quarter of the U.S. economy - the most recent recession has been business as usual when judged by pre-recession trends. For a slightly larger group of industries, mostly related to construction, manufacturing, and trade, the contractions have been severe, reinforcing a preexisting process of steady relative decline.
Economic Synopses

Journal Article
Lessons from the recent recession: the faster they grow, the harder they fall
Martin, Fernando M. (2013)
U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) contracted significantly and persistently during the recent financial crisis and recession. Lessons can be learned from comparing the U.S. experience with that of other industrialized countries.
Economic Synopses

Journal Article
Fiscal policy in the Great Recession and lessons from the past
Martin, Fernando M. (2012)
The recent behavior of key fiscal policy variables draws some parallels with the U.S. experience in the Civil War and the two world wars. A specific concern is the possibility of high inflation to finance the accumulated debt.
Economic Synopses

Journal Article
A Perspective on Nominal Interest Rates
Martin, Fernando M. (2016)
Interest rates are at historic lows. The U.S. effective federal funds rate was near zero between late 2008 and late 2015 and has remained low since ?liftoff? in December 2015.1 Other developed countries, such as Germany, Japan, and Switzerland, have recently sold new long-term debt at negative yields. This essay revisits some facts about interest rate behavior to provide context for the current situation.
Economic Synopses , Issue 25 , Pages 1-2

Journal Article
A Closer Look at Federal Income Taxes
Martin, Fernando M. (2016)
Tax cuts for the middle class, even minor ones, would imply big declines in revenue. Closing the deficit by taxing the rich would require major tax hikes.
Economic Synopses , Issue 23 , Pages 1-2