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Journal Article
Monetary Policy and the Output Gap
Martin, Fernando M. (2014)
Overestimating how far the economy is away from its potential unnecessarily risks delaying the end of unusual monetary accommodation.
Economic Synopses , Issue 27

Journal Article
Sovereign debt: a modern Greek tragedy
Martin, Fernando M.; Waller, Christopher J. (2012-09)
The authors of this article provide a general introduction to the concept of sovereign debt?including the seductive nature of borrowing and the strategies associated with default?before analyzing the current debt crises in Europe. They focus on Greece?s current woes but also discuss Portugal, Ireland, Italy, and Spain. The authors also discuss the environment in the United States, which has a high debt burden of its own, and present fiscal choices for policymakers and taxpayers.
Review , Issue Sep , Pages 321-340

Journal Article
Economic Realities and Consequences of the COVID-19 Pandemic—Part II: The Economy and Fiscal Policy
Martin, Fernando M. (2020-03-30)
The economy is showing both positive and negative reactions to shutdown measures.
Economic Synopses , Issue 11

What Are the Risks for Future Inflation?
Martin, Fernando M. (2021-10-07)
U.S. inflation has surged in recent months. What are some of the upside and downside risks for future inflation?
On the Economy

Journal Article
Making Ends Meet on the Federal Budget: Outlook and Challenges
Martin, Fernando M. (2017)
With the advent of every new administration come numerous proposals to fix the federal budget, mostly involving tax code overhaul, entitlement reform and curbs on government debt. Invariably, these proposals get toned down during congressional review and often die before becoming a reality. With the various plans currently floating around, it seems like a good time to review the state and future of the federal government?s accounts.
The Regional Economist , Volume 25 , Issue 3

Journal Article
The Economic Impact of COVID-19 around the World
Martin, Fernando M.; Sanchez, Juan M.; Wilkinson, Olivia (2023-04-10)
This article provides an account of the worldwide economic impact of the COVID-19 shock. In 2020, it severely impacted output growth and employment, particularly in middle-income countries. Governments responded primarily by increasing expenditure, supported by an expansion of the supply of money and debt. These policies did not put upward pressure on prices until 2021. International trade was severely disrupted across all regions in 2020 but subsequently recovered. For 2021, we find that the adverse effects of the COVID-19 shock on output and prices were significant and persistent, ...
Review , Volume 105 , Issue 2 , Pages 74-88

Where Might Inflation Head?
Martin, Fernando M. (2023-05-09)
Excess savings created from past federal aid indicate consumption will likely remain high. This suggests inflationary pressures may persist despite the Fed’s tightening.
On the Economy

Journal Article
A Closer Look at Federal Income Taxes
Martin, Fernando M. (2016)
Tax cuts for the middle class, even minor ones, would imply big declines in revenue. Closing the deficit by taxing the rich would require major tax hikes.
Economic Synopses , Issue 23 , Pages 1-2

Journal Article
Revisiting GDP Growth Projections
Martin, Fernando M. (2016)
Based largely on predicted trends for labor force participation, GDP is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 2.2 percent over the next decade.
Economic Synopses , Issue 5 , Pages 1-2

Journal Article
The U.S. Financial Landscape on the Eve of the Pandemic
Martin, Fernando M. (2020-08-10)
During the 2007-08 financial crisis, the Federal Reserve stepped in to prevent a possible panic. How did this affect the U.S. financial system in later years?
The Regional Economist , Volume 28 , Issue 3

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