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Working Paper
The U.S. external deficit: its causes and persistence
This paper presents an empirical analysis of the macroeconomic and microeconomic factors underlying the causes and persistence of the U.S. external deficit in the 1980s. The paper begins with a review of the extensive literature on this subject, and then outlines an analytical framework that synthesizes several different approaches taken in previous studies. The proximate causes of the deficit are assessed using a partial-equilibrium model of the U.S. current account. We find that the decline in U.S. price competitiveness associated with the appreciation of the dollar over the first half of ...
Working Paper
Towards the next generation of newly industrializing economies: the roles for macroeconomic policy and the manufacturing sector
In the 1970s, the Newly Industrializing Economies (NIEs) emerged from the pack of developing countries by exporting manufactured goods. Some succeeded and some did not. In this decade, another set of developing countries are poised to become the next generation of NIEs. Which have the prerequisites of stable macroeconomic policies and the foundation for further manufacturing development? A review of the Latin and Asian NIEs' experiences suggests criteria against which we can measure countries of the next generation. ; Macroeconomic criteria include: the savings-investment imbalance, but also ...
Working Paper
Prospects for sustained improvement in U.S. external balance: structural change versus policy change
This paper assesses prospects for sustained improvement in the U.S. external balance drawing on both model-based macro analysis and examination of disaggregated data. Most model projections of the future path of U.S. external balance show the recent improvement petering out by the end 1989 or so. Key structural factors leading to the expected future worsening of U. S. external balance are two asymmetries--the "income asymmetry" and the "pass-through asymmetry". That is, asymmetries in the pricing behavior of U.S. exporters and foreign suppliers and asymmetries in the elasticities of U.S. ...
Journal Article
This is Bangalore calling: hang up or speed dial? what technology-enabled international trade in services means for the U.S. economy and workforce
The U.S. service sector is in the midst of a transformation similar to the one undergone by the manufacturing sector. Some jobs are moving to other countries, some are disappearing, some are being born. But the service-sector transformation is likely to be different. Technological advances and globalization are making it possible, but these factors reinforce each other in such a way that the gains to the U.S. economy are likely to be greater than with manufacturing, and the transition costs more widespread. Thus, superior and better coordinated domestic and international policies are needed ...
Conference Paper
The U.S. external deficit: its causes and persistence
Working Paper
Fiscal implications of the transition from planned to market economy
The transition from a centrally planned to a market-based economic system should change fundamentally the roles of government and public enterprises in the East-Central European countries of Hungary, Poland, and the Czech and Slovak Federated Republic (CSFR). The size of government should diminish, and that of the private sector increase, as subsidies, which are difficult to justify at market prices, are phased out. Taxes in centrally planned economies tend to be highly distortionary relative to those in market economies, making a restructuring of the tax system desirable to improve ...
How Pieces of the Economy Fit Together
In this Women in Economics Podcast episode, Catherine Mann shares how data led her to a career in economics and the importance of mentorship in the field.
Working Paper
Globalization and productivity in the United States and Germany
This paper investigates the impact of globalization on productivity growth and the procyclicality of productivity growth in manufacturing industries in the United States and Germany. For U.S. industries, the analysis suggests that changes in international demand affect productivity growth differently from changes in exposure to international competition. An increase in foreign demand for U.S. exports raises trend productivity growth, but to a lesser degree than does a similar demand shock from domestic buyers. On the other hand, whereas an increase in U.S. imports reduces trend productivity ...
Journal Article
U.S. international transaction in 1984