Discussion Paper
An investigation into the economic slowdown in the euro area
de Soyres, Francois; Fisgin, Ece; Garcia-Cabo, Joaquin; Lott, Mitch; Machol, Chris; Richards, Keith (2024-12-20)
Euro-area economic performance has been subdued since around 2018, and especially so in more recent years. As discussed in both Enrico Letta's and Mario Draghi's reports, the euro area economy faces notable structural challenges that were exacerbated by the pandemic and the disruption to energy markets that ensued from the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
FEDS Notes , Paper 2024-12-20-1

Discussion Paper
Disinflation Progress: A Comparison of Advanced Economies
de Soyres, Francois; Lofstrom, Grace; Lott, Mitch; Machol, Chris; Saijid, Zina (2024-08-02)
Following several decades of low inflation in most advanced economies, the Covid pandemic gave rise to unprecedented global economic conditions, materializing in a synchronized surge in price pressures. In this note, we analyze the recent inflation burst and assess the disinflation progress across advanced economies.
FEDS Notes , Paper 2024-08-02-5

Discussion Paper
Racing Against Tariffs: Global Impacts of Frontloading
de Soyres, Francois; Gornemann, Nils M.; Machol, Chris (2025-08-01)
In the first quarter of 2025, exports to the United States surged for many economies as firms frontloaded shipments ahead of expected tariff increases. This frontloading led to a sharp rise in overall net exports (NX) in several foreign countries, accounting for a large share of quarterly GDP growth—sometimes exceeding 100 percent of total growth—as domestic absorption contracted.
FEDS Notes , Paper 2025-08-01-1