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Discussion Paper
Quantifying the Impact of Foreign Economic Uncertainty on the U.S. Economy
In this note, we construct a measure of real economic uncertainty (REU)--based on the predictability of near-term economic performance--for the major advanced economies.
Working Paper
Uncertainty and Growth Disasters
This paper documents several stylized facts on the real effects of economic uncertainty. First, higher uncertainty is associated with a more dispersed and negatively skewed distribution of output growth. Second, the response of economic growth to an increase in uncertainty is highly nonlinear and asymmetric. Third, higher asset volatility magnifies the negative impact of uncertainty on growth. We develop and estimate an analytically tractable model in which rapid adoption of new technology may raise economic uncertainty which causes measured productivity to decline. The equilibrium growth ...