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Discussion Paper
The Fourth SNB-FRB-BIS High-Level Conference on Global Risk, Uncertainty, and Volatility: Risk and Uncertainty in a Post-Pandemic World; Implications for the Economy, Financial Markets, and Monetary Policy
Over the past five years, the COVID-19 pandemic, supply chain disruptions, concerns about trade policies and their implications for the global trading network, military conflicts, and broader geopolitical tensions have sharply heightened risk and uncertainty. U.S. and global Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) reached unprecedented levels in April 2025, mostly driven by uncertainty about trade policies (Figure 1).
Discussion Paper
Quantifying the Impact of Foreign Economic Uncertainty on the U.S. Economy
In this note, we construct a measure of real economic uncertainty (REU)--based on the predictability of near-term economic performance--for the major advanced economies.