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Working Paper
Financial innovation and monetary policy effectiveness
Working Paper
What was behind the M2 breakdown?
A deterioration in the link between the M2 monetary aggregate and GDP, along with large errors in predicting M2 growth, led the Board of Governors to downgrade the M2 aggregate as a reliable indicator of monetary policy in 1993. In this paper, we argue that the financial condition of depository institutions was a major factor behind the unusual pattern of M2 growth in the early 1990s. By constructing alternative measures of M2 based on banks and thrifts capital positions, we show that the anomalous behavior of M2 in the early 1990s disappears. Specifically, after accounting for the effect of ...
Journal Article
Banking and the economy: what are the facts?
Cara S. Lown explores the banking industry's role in the economy and finds evidence supporting the idea that fluctuations in bank credit are related to fluctuations in economic activity. She also finds that bank asset holdings adjust before changes in economic activity and that the banking system's security-to-asset ratio strongly predicts economic growth. By analyzing terms of bank lending over the business cycle, Lown concludes that variations in lending terms are consistent with the argument that restrictions on bank credit adversely affect the economy. Lown's study reflects the renewed ...
Journal Article
Money market deposit accounts versus money market mutual funds