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Journal Article
Where Is Shelter Inflation Headed?
Shelter inflation has remained high even as other components of inflation have fallen. However, various market indicators, including house prices and rents, suggest that the housing market has slowed significantly with the rise in interest rates. Forecasting models that combine several measures of local shelter and rent inflation can help explain how recent trends might affect the path of future shelter inflation. The models indicate that shelter inflation is likely to slow significantly over the next 18 months, consistent with the evolving effects of interest rate hikes on housing markets.
Working Paper
Supply Constraints Do Not Explain House Price and Quantity Growth Across U.S. Cities
The standard view of housing markets holds that differences in the flexibility of local housing supply shaped by factors like geography and regulation—explain differences in how house price and quantity growth respond to rising demand across U.S. cities. However, from 2000 to 2020, we find that higher income growth predicts the same growth in house prices, housing quantity, and population regardless of a city’s estimated housing supply elasticity. We find the same results when we examine rents, expand the sample to 1980 to 2020, use different elasticity measures, use per capita income or ...
Journal Article
Housing Affordability and Housing Demand
Understanding housing demand dynamics through two indicators, income growth and population growth, provides important insights into housing affordability. Research shows that average U.S. income growth is strongly related to rising house prices but is essentially unrelated to changes in the supply of housing units across metropolitan areas. Instead, greater population growth translates into greater housing supply growth, with housing supply generally outpacing population, even in expensive markets. Thus, differences in affordability across areas may reflect differences in the growth and type ...