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Discussion Paper
An investigation into the economic slowdown in the euro area
Euro-area economic performance has been subdued since around 2018, and especially so in more recent years. As discussed in both Enrico Letta's and Mario Draghi's reports, the euro area economy faces notable structural challenges that were exacerbated by the pandemic and the disruption to energy markets that ensued from the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Discussion Paper
Disinflation Progress: A Comparison of Advanced Economies
Following several decades of low inflation in most advanced economies, the Covid pandemic gave rise to unprecedented global economic conditions, materializing in a synchronized surge in price pressures. In this note, we analyze the recent inflation burst and assess the disinflation progress across advanced economies.
Discussion Paper
Real-Time Global Longer-Run Neutral Rates
In this note, we provide updated real-time estimates for global longer-run real neutral interest rates – the real component of policy interest rates consistent with both economic activity and inflation at their longer-run trends. We use the methods from Davin and Ferreira (2022) and Ferreira and Shousha (2023) for the same variety of economies.
Working Paper
Expanding the Labor Market Lens: Two New Eurozone Labor Indicators
We present a principal component analysis of euro area labor market conditions by combining information from 22 labor market indicators into two comprehensive series. These two novel indicators provide a systematic view of the current state and forward-looking direction of the euro-area labor market, respectively, and demonstrate superior forecasting performance compared to existing indicators. Crucially, we find significant implications for monetary policy design: a local projection analysis reveals that ECB monetary policy shocks have attenuated effects on both inflation and unemployment ...