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Journal Article
The current strength of the U.S. banking sector
Lopez, Jose A.; Krainer, John (2003)
FRBSF Economic Letter

Working Paper
Small Business Lending Under the PPP and PPPLF Programs
Lopez, Jose A.; Spiegel, Mark M. (2021-04-08)
We examine the effects of the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) and the PPP Liquidity Facility (PPPLF) on small business lending. The PPP was launched under the CARES Act of March 2020 to provide support for small businesses under the COVID-19 pandemic, while the PPPLF was an affiliated program administered by the Federal Reserve to facilitate the maintenance of liquidity among banks participating in the PPP. We use Call Report data to examine the contributions of these two programs on small business and farm lending by individual commercial banks in the United States. As participation in the ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2021-10

Journal Article
Modeling credit risk for commercial loans
Lopez, Jose A. (2001)
FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
Policy applications of a global macroeconomic model
Dennis, Richard; Lopez, Jose A. (2004)
In this Economic Letter, we summarize the key components of the GVAR model and discuss its usefulness for monetary policy applications and for credit risk management issues faced by financial institutions and their government supervisors. We argue that while the GVAR model is probably useful for credit risk management and could potentially have some use for bank supervision, it is unlikely to be as useful for monetary policy applications.
FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
Supervisory information and the frequency of bank examinations
Lopez, Jose A.; Hirtle, Beverly (1999-04)
Bank supervisors need timely and reliable information about the financial condition and risk profile of banks. A key source of this information is the on-site, full-scope bank examination. This article evaluates the frequency with which supervisors examine banks by assessing the decay rate of the private supervisory information gathered during examinations. The analysis suggests that this information ceases to provide a useful picture of a bank's current condition after six to twelve quarters. The decay rate appears to be faster in years when the banking industry experiences financial ...
Economic Policy Review , Volume 5 , Issue Apr , Pages 1-20

Journal Article
Methods for evaluating value-at-risk estimates
Lopez, Jose A. (1998-10)
This paper was presented at the conference "Financial services at the crossroads: capital regulation in the twenty-first century" as part of session 3, "Issues in value-at-risk modeling and evaluation." The conference, held at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on February 26-27, 1998, was designed to encourage a consensus between the public and private sectors on an agenda for capital regulation in the new century.
Economic Policy Review , Volume 4 , Issue Oct , Pages 119-124

Report
Exchange rate cointegration across central bank regime shifts
Lopez, Jose A. (1996)
Foreign exchange rates are examined using cointegration tests over various time periods linked to regime shifts in central bank behavior. The number of cointegrating vectors seems to vary across these regime changes within the foreign exchange market. For example, cointegration is not generally found prior to the Plaza Agreement of September 22, 1985, but it is present after that date. The significance of these changes is evaluated using a likelihood ratio procedure proposed by Quintos (1993). The changing nature of the cointegrating relationships indicate that certain aspects of central bank ...
Research Paper , Paper 9602

Discussion Paper
Alternative measures of the Federal Reserve banks' cost of equity capital
Barnes, Michelle L.; Lopez, Jose A. (2005)
The Monetary Control Act of 1980 requires the Federal Reserve System to provide payment services to depository institutions through the twelve Federal Reserve Banks at prices that fully reflect the costs a private-sector provider would incur, including a cost of equity capital (COE). Although Fama and French (1997) conclude that COE estimates are ?woefully? and ?unavoidably? imprecise, the Reserve Banks require such an estimate every year. We examine several COE estimates based on the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and compare them using econometric and materiality criteria. Our results ...
Public Policy Discussion Paper , Paper 05-2

Conference Paper
Regulatory evaluation of value-at-risk models using probability forecasts
Lopez, Jose A. (1997)
Proceedings , Paper 552

Journal Article
Methods for evaluating value-at-risk estimates
Lopez, Jose A. (1999)
Since 1998, U.S. commercial banks with significant trading activities have been required to hold capital against their defined market risk exposure. Under the "internal models" approach embodied in the current regulatory guidelines, the capital charges are a function of banks' own value-at-risk (VaR) estimates. VaR estimates are simply forecasts of the maximum portfolio loss that could occur over a given holding period with a specified confidence level. Clearly, the accuracy of these VaR estimates is of concern to both banks and their regulators. ; To date, two hypothesis-testing methods ...
Economic Review

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