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Discussion Paper
The Fourth SNB-FRB-BIS High-Level Conference on Global Risk, Uncertainty, and Volatility: Risk and Uncertainty in a Post-Pandemic World; Implications for the Economy, Financial Markets, and Monetary Policy
Over the past five years, the COVID-19 pandemic, supply chain disruptions, concerns about trade policies and their implications for the global trading network, military conflicts, and broader geopolitical tensions have sharply heightened risk and uncertainty. U.S. and global Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) reached unprecedented levels in April 2025, mostly driven by uncertainty about trade policies (Figure 1).
Discussion Paper
Which Days Matter for Global Equity Markets? Using Options to Price Events in the Global Calendar
Economic developments matter for equity markets, as these developments contain information about both future cash flows and discount rates, the two fundamental drivers of equity prices. Due to the interconnected nature of global equity markets, foreign economic developments could also matter for investors in domestic equity markets.
Discussion Paper
Downside and Upside Economic Uncertainty
Over the last year, many forecasts have called out a slowdown in the U.S. economy driven mainly by heightened trade and geopolitical tensions. Instead, growth in the United States has remained quite solid. Real U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) grew at a strong annual rate of 3.8 percent in the second quarter of 2025.
Discussion Paper
Fifth Conference on the International Roles of the U.S. Dollar: Stablecoins, Digital Payments, and the International Role of the U.S. Dollar
The U.S. dollar continues to occupy a central role in the global economy. It remains the most widely used currency in foreign exchange transactions and cross-border payments, the leading currency in official reserve holdings, and the dominant currency of denomination for international debt securities and loans. This dominant position reflects several enduring features of the U.S. economy and financial system, including the size and strength of U.S. economy, the depth and liquidity of U.S. financial markets, and enduring confidence in U.S. institutions.
Discussion Paper
Quantifying the Impact of Foreign Economic Uncertainty on the U.S. Economy
In this note, we construct a measure of real economic uncertainty (REU)--based on the predictability of near-term economic performance--for the major advanced economies.
Discussion Paper
Central Banks' Financial Stability Communications during the COVID-19 Pandemic
The COVID-19 pandemic has led to the implementation of unprecedented policy actions by central banks around the world. Along with the reduction of interest rates and the use of asset purchase and lending programs, central bank communications have been actively deployed as a policy tool.
Discussion Paper
Global Real Economic Uncertainty and COVID-19
The COVID-19 pandemic led to unprecedented disruptions in supply, demand, and productivity, which have had cataclysmic health, social, and economic implications across the globe. In this note, we explore the large increase in global real economic uncertainty observed during the pandemic as a channel that explains or magnifies the economic implications of COVID-19
Discussion Paper
The SNB-FRB-BIS High-Level Conference on Inflation Risk and Uncertainty
Uncertainty about inflation has risen considerably across the globe since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. Lack of clarity about how far inflation might fall during the depths of the pandemic gave way to concerns about inflationary pressures as demand surged and supply was constrained throughout 2021.
Discussion Paper
2nd Annual International Roles of the U.S. Dollar Conference
The U.S. dollar plays a central role in the global economy. In addition to being the most widely used currency in foreign exchange transactions, it represents the largest share in official reserves, international debt securities and loans, cross-border payments, and trade invoicing.
Discussion Paper
Global Inflation Uncertainty and its Economic Effects
Policymakers, including Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants, have been stressing the elevated level of uncertainty, especially related to inflation, and the challenge this poses for monetary policy. As seen in Figure 1, with few exceptions, FOMC participants see the level of uncertainty around their forecasts for core PCE inflation as high, compared to the average over the past 20 years.