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Report
China in the global economy. SF Fed President John Williams talks with Zheng Liu, Mark Spiegel, and Fernanda Nechio of the international research team about China's economic slowdown and how it's affecting global economic activity
Nechio, Fernanda; Liu, Zheng; Williams, John C.; Spiegel, Mark M. (2015)
In the 2015 annual report, What We've Learned...and why it matters, we share our research findings about the slowdown in China's economic growth and its effects on the U.S. economy, emerging market economies, and global commodity markets. Cyclical and structural factors underlie the slowdown. We discuss the impact of trends in exports and investment, and the country's transformation from a manufacturing-based economy to a service-based economy. We believe China's days of 10 percent economic growth likely are over.
Annual Report

Working Paper
The slow job recovery in a macro model of search and recruiting intensity
Liu, Zheng; Leduc, Sylvain (2016-05-08)
Despite steady declines in the unemployment rate and increases in the job openings rate after the Great Recession, the hiring rate in the United States has lagged behind. Significant gaps remain between the actual job filling and finding rates and those predicted from the standard labor search model. To examine the forces behind the slow job recovery, we generalize the standard model to incorporate endogenous variations in search intensity and recruiting intensity. Our model features a vacancy creation cost, which implies that firms rely on variations in both the number of vacancies and ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2016-9

Journal Article
Job uncertainty and Chinese household savings
Liu, Zheng (2014)
China?s household saving rate has risen substantially during the past two decades. Research suggests that increased job uncertainty following reforms and massive layoffs in state-owned enterprises during the late 1990s contributed significantly to the increase. Facing higher unemployment risks after the reforms, workers in state-owned enterprises have tended to save more as a precaution. A recent study estimates that precautionary saving driven by the reforms explains about a third of Chinese urban household wealth accumulation from 1995 to 2002.
FRBSF Economic Letter

Working Paper
Multiple stages of processing and the quantity anomaly in international business cycle models
Huang, Kevin X. D.; Liu, Zheng (2004)
We construct a two-country DSGE model with multiple stages of processing and local currency staggered price-setting to study cross-country quantity correlations driven by monetary shocks. The model embodies a mechanism that propagates a monetary surprise in the home country to lower the foreign price level while restraining the home price level from rising too quickly; and, it does so through reducing material costs in terms of the foreign currency unit while dampening the upward movements in the costs in terms of the home currency unit, both in absolute terms and relative to the costs of ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 04-05

Working Paper
Capital controls and optimal Chinese monetary policy
Spiegel, Mark M.; Chang, Chun; Liu, Zheng (2013)
We examine optimal monetary policy under prevailing Chinese policies> ? including capital controls, nominal exchange rate targets, and costly sterilization of foreign capital inflows. China?s combination of capital controls and exchange rate pegs disrupts its monetary policy, precluding adjustments that could maintain macroeconomic stability following a set of shocks that mirror its experience during the global financial crisis. However, comparing different policy regimes in a consistent DSGE framework, we find that the bulk of welfare gains achieved under full liberalization can be obtained ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2012-13

Journal Article
External shocks and China’s monetary policy
Liu, Zheng; Spiegel, Mark M. (2012)
China prohibits its private sector from freely trading foreign assets and tightly manages currency exchange rates. In the wake of the recent global financial crisis, interest rates on China?s foreign assets fell sharply, while yields on Chinese domestic assets remained relatively high, posing a challenge for China?s monetary policy. Opening the capital account would improve China?s capacity to weather external shocks, such as sudden declines in foreign interest rates. However, allowing the exchange rate to float without removing capital controls is less effective.
FRBSF Economic Letter

Working Paper
Asymmetric expectation effects of regime shifts in monetary policy
Zha, Tao; Waggoner, Daniel F.; Liu, Zheng (2008)
This paper addresses two substantive issues: (1) Does the magnitude of the expectation effect of regime switching in monetary policy depend on a particular policy regime? (2) Under which regime is the expectation effect quantitatively important? Using two canonical DSGE models, we show that there exists asymmetry in the expectation effect across regimes. The expectation effect under the dovish policy regime is quantitatively more important than that under the hawkish regime. These results suggest that the possibility of regime shifts in monetary policy can have important effects on rational ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2008-22

Journal Article
Are Workers Losing to Robots?
Liu, Zheng; Leduc, Sylvain (2019)
The portion of national income that goes to workers, known as the labor share, has fallen substantially over the past 20 years. Even with strong employment growth in recent years, the labor share has remained at historically low levels. Automation has been an important driving factor. While it has increased labor productivity, the threat of automation has also weakened workers? bargaining power in wage negotiations and led to stagnant wage growth. Analysis suggests that automation contributed substantially to the decline in the labor share.
FRBSF Economic Letter

Working Paper
Land-price dynamics and macroeconomic fluctuations
Zha, Tao; Wang, Pengfei; Liu, Zheng (2011)
We argue that positive comovements between land prices and business investment are a driving force behind the broad impact of land-price dynamics on the macroeconomy. We develop an economic mechanism that captures the comovements by incorporating two key features into a DSGE model: we introduce land as a collateral asset in firms' credit constraints, and we identify a shock that drives most of the observed fluctuations in land prices. Our estimates imply that these two features combine to generate an empirically important mechanism that amplifies and propagates macroeconomic fluctuations ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2011-11

Working Paper
Land Prices and Unemployment
Zha, Tao; Miao, Jianjun; Liu, Zheng (2013)
We integrate the housing market and the labor market in a dynamic general equilibrium model with credit and search frictions. The model is confronted with the U.S. macroeconomic time series. Our estimated model can account for two prominent facts observed in the data. First, the land price and the unemployment rate tend to move in opposite directions over the business cycle. Second, a shock that moves the land price is capable of generating large volatility in unemployment. Our estimation indicates that a 10 percent drop in the land price leads to a 0.34 percentage point increase of the ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2013-22

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