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Report
China in the global economy. SF Fed President John Williams talks with Zheng Liu, Mark Spiegel, and Fernanda Nechio of the international research team about China's economic slowdown and how it's affecting global economic activity
Nechio, Fernanda; Liu, Zheng; Williams, John C.; Spiegel, Mark M. (2015)
In the 2015 annual report, What We've Learned...and why it matters, we share our research findings about the slowdown in China's economic growth and its effects on the U.S. economy, emerging market economies, and global commodity markets. Cyclical and structural factors underlie the slowdown. We discuss the impact of trends in exports and investment, and the country's transformation from a manufacturing-based economy to a service-based economy. We believe China's days of 10 percent economic growth likely are over.
Annual Report

Working Paper
Reshoring, Automation, and Labor Markets Under Trade Uncertainty
Leduc, Sylvain; Liu, Zheng (2024-05-05)
We study the implications of trade uncertainty for reshoring, automation, and U.S. labor markets. Rising trade uncertainty creates incentive for firms to reduce exposures to foreign suppliers by moving production and distribution processes to domestic producers. However, we argue that reshoring does not necessarily bring jobs back to the home country or boost domestic wages, especially when firms have access to labor-substituting technologies such as automation. Automation improves labor productivity and facilitates reshoring, but it can also displace jobs. Furthermore, automation poses a ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2024-16

Working Paper
The slow job recovery in a macro model of search and recruiting intensity
Liu, Zheng; Leduc, Sylvain (2016-05-08)
Despite steady declines in the unemployment rate and increases in the job openings rate after the Great Recession, the hiring rate in the United States has lagged behind. Significant gaps remain between the actual job filling and finding rates and those predicted from the standard labor search model. To examine the forces behind the slow job recovery, we generalize the standard model to incorporate endogenous variations in search intensity and recruiting intensity. Our model features a vacancy creation cost, which implies that firms rely on variations in both the number of vacancies and ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2016-9

Journal Article
Job uncertainty and Chinese household savings
Liu, Zheng (2014)
China?s household saving rate has risen substantially during the past two decades. Research suggests that increased job uncertainty following reforms and massive layoffs in state-owned enterprises during the late 1990s contributed significantly to the increase. Facing higher unemployment risks after the reforms, workers in state-owned enterprises have tended to save more as a precaution. A recent study estimates that precautionary saving driven by the reforms explains about a third of Chinese urban household wealth accumulation from 1995 to 2002.
FRBSF Economic Letter

Working Paper
Multiple stages of processing and the quantity anomaly in international business cycle models
Huang, Kevin X. D.; Liu, Zheng (2004)
We construct a two-country DSGE model with multiple stages of processing and local currency staggered price-setting to study cross-country quantity correlations driven by monetary shocks. The model embodies a mechanism that propagates a monetary surprise in the home country to lower the foreign price level while restraining the home price level from rising too quickly; and, it does so through reducing material costs in terms of the foreign currency unit while dampening the upward movements in the costs in terms of the home currency unit, both in absolute terms and relative to the costs of ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 04-05

Working Paper
Capital controls and optimal Chinese monetary policy
Spiegel, Mark M.; Chang, Chun; Liu, Zheng (2013)
We examine optimal monetary policy under prevailing Chinese policies> ? including capital controls, nominal exchange rate targets, and costly sterilization of foreign capital inflows. China?s combination of capital controls and exchange rate pegs disrupts its monetary policy, precluding adjustments that could maintain macroeconomic stability following a set of shocks that mirror its experience during the global financial crisis. However, comparing different policy regimes in a consistent DSGE framework, we find that the bulk of welfare gains achieved under full liberalization can be obtained ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2012-13

Journal Article
External shocks and China’s monetary policy
Liu, Zheng; Spiegel, Mark M. (2012)
China prohibits its private sector from freely trading foreign assets and tightly manages currency exchange rates. In the wake of the recent global financial crisis, interest rates on China?s foreign assets fell sharply, while yields on Chinese domestic assets remained relatively high, posing a challenge for China?s monetary policy. Opening the capital account would improve China?s capacity to weather external shocks, such as sudden declines in foreign interest rates. However, allowing the exchange rate to float without removing capital controls is less effective.
FRBSF Economic Letter

Working Paper
Asymmetric expectation effects of regime shifts in monetary policy
Zha, Tao; Waggoner, Daniel F.; Liu, Zheng (2008)
This paper addresses two substantive issues: (1) Does the magnitude of the expectation effect of regime switching in monetary policy depend on a particular policy regime? (2) Under which regime is the expectation effect quantitatively important? Using two canonical DSGE models, we show that there exists asymmetry in the expectation effect across regimes. The expectation effect under the dovish policy regime is quantitatively more important than that under the hawkish regime. These results suggest that the possibility of regime shifts in monetary policy can have important effects on rational ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2008-22

Working Paper
Targeted Reserve Requirements for Macroeconomic Stabilization
Liu, Zheng; Spiegel, Mark M.; Zhang, Jingyi (2023-05-08)
We study the effectiveness of targeted reserve requirements (RR) as a policy tool for macroeconomic stabilization. Targeted RR adjustments were implemented in China during both the 2008-09 global financial crisis and the recent COVID-19 pandemic. We develop a model in which firms with idiosyncratic productivity can borrow from two types of banks---local or national---to finance working capital. National banks provide liquidity services, while local banks have superior monitoring technologies, such that both types coexist. Relationship banking is modeled in terms of a fixed cost of switching ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2023-13

Journal Article
Are Workers Losing to Robots?
Liu, Zheng; Leduc, Sylvain (2019)
The portion of national income that goes to workers, known as the labor share, has fallen substantially over the past 20 years. Even with strong employment growth in recent years, the labor share has remained at historically low levels. Automation has been an important driving factor. While it has increased labor productivity, the threat of automation has also weakened workers? bargaining power in wage negotiations and led to stagnant wage growth. Analysis suggests that automation contributed substantially to the decline in the labor share.
FRBSF Economic Letter

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