Discussion Paper
The Global Trade Effects of the AI Infrastructure Boom
de Soyres, Francois; Haag, Alex; Liu, Mike; Van Leemput, Eva (2026-02-13)
Artificial intelligence (AI) has become a key driver of the global economic outlook, underscored by the unprecedented scale of announced investment commitments aimed at expanding AI-related infrastructure. The AI boom is also increasingly influencing international trade by boosting demand for critical inputs and intermediate goods needed to build data centers.
FEDS Notes , Paper 2026-02-13-2

Discussion Paper
China’s Trade Dominance and the Role of Industrial Policies
de Soyres, Francois; Fisgin, Ece; Liu, Mike; Van Leemput, Eva (2026-03-23)
China's trade surplus surged to a record $1.2 trillion in 2025, exceeding 6% of its GDP, marking a new milestone in its integration into, and dominance of, the global trading system. This development has attracted heightened attention from policymakers and analysts, not only because of the sheer size of the surplus, but also because of growing concerns about the distribution of global manufacturing, the persistence of global external imbalances, and the role of industrial policy interventions in shaping trade outcomes.
FEDS Notes , Paper 2026-03-23