Search Results
Journal Article
How monetary policy in 1985 affects the outlook
Working Paper
Techniques of forecasting using vector autoregressions
Report
Specifying vector autoregressions for macroeconomic forecasting
This paper describes a Bayesian specification procedure used to generate a vector autoregressive model for forecasting macroeconomic variables. The specification search is over parameters of a prior. This quasi-Bayesian approach is viewed as a flexible tool for constructing a filter which optimally extracts information about the future from a set of macroeconomic data. The procedure is applied to a set of data and a consistent improvement in forecasting performance is documented.
Journal Article
As the nation's economy goes, so goes Minnesota's
Report
Money, real interest rates, and output: a reinterpretation of postwar U.S. data
The claim that bad money drives out good is one of the oldest and most cited in economics. Economists refer to this claim as Gresham?s law. Yet despite its seemingly universal acceptance, this claim does not warrant its status as a law. We find it has no convincing explanations and many overlooked exceptions. We propose an alternative hypothesis based on the costs of using a medium of exchange at a nonpar price: small-denomination currency undervalued at the mint tends to disappear from circulation while large-denomination currency usually circulates at premium. Examining a variety of ...
Journal Article
District conditions / a midyear report
Working Paper
The costs of intermediate targeting
Report
Optimal control of the money supply
Using optimal control theory and a vector autoregressive representation of the relationship between money and interest rates, one can derive a feedback control procedure which defines the best possible tradeoff between money supply fluctuations and interest rate volatility and which could be used to reduce both from their current levels.
Report
A use of index models in macroeconomic forecasting
This paper surveys recent issues in macroeconomics from the viewpoint of dynamic economic theory. The need to look beyond demand and supply curves and the insights that come from doing so are emphasized. Examples of issues in debt management and fiscal policy are analyzed.