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Working Paper
The limits of counter-cyclical monetary policy: an analysis based on optimal control theory and vector autoregressions
Optimal control theory can be combined with the probability structure of a vector autoregression to investigate the tradeoffs available to policymakers. Such an approach obtains results based on a minimal set of assumptions about the economy and the structure of policy actions. This paper takes this approach to analyze the potential effectiveness of countercyclical monetary policy.
Report
A use of index models in macroeconomic forecasting
This paper surveys recent issues in macroeconomics from the viewpoint of dynamic economic theory. The need to look beyond demand and supply curves and the insights that come from doing so are emphasized. Examples of issues in debt management and fiscal policy are analyzed.
Report
Forecasting and conditional projection using realistic prior distribution
This paper develops a forecasting procedure based on a Bayesian method for estimating vector autoregressions. We apply the procedure to 10 macroeconomic variables and show that it produces more accurate out-of-sample forecasts than univariate equations do. Although cross-variable responses are damped by the prior, our estimates capture considerable interaction among the variables. ; We provide unconditional forecasts as of 1982:12 and 1983:3. We also describe how a model such as this can be used to make conditional projections and analyze policy alternatives. As an example, we analyze a ...
Journal Article
Optimal control of the money supply
Working Paper
The costs of intermediate targeting
Working Paper
Techniques of forecasting using vector autoregressions
Journal Article
Building a coherent risk measurement and capital optimisation model for financial firms
This paper was presented at the conference "Financial services at the crossroads: capital regulation in the twenty-first century" as part of session 5, "International capital allocation at financial institutions." The conference, held at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on February 26-27, 1998, was designed to encourage a consensus between the public and private sectors on an agenda for capital regulation in the new century.
Journal Article
As the nation's economy goes, so goes Minnesota's