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Journal Article
How monetary policy in 1985 affects the outlook
Journal Article
Optimal control of the money supply
Journal Article
Above-average national growth in 1985 and 1986
Journal Article
District conditions / a midyear report
Journal Article
As the nation's economy goes, so goes Minnesota's
Report
Money, real interest rates, and output: a reinterpretation of postwar U.S. data
The claim that bad money drives out good is one of the oldest and most cited in economics. Economists refer to this claim as Gresham?s law. Yet despite its seemingly universal acceptance, this claim does not warrant its status as a law. We find it has no convincing explanations and many overlooked exceptions. We propose an alternative hypothesis based on the costs of using a medium of exchange at a nonpar price: small-denomination currency undervalued at the mint tends to disappear from circulation while large-denomination currency usually circulates at premium. Examining a variety of ...
Report
Specifying vector autoregressions for macroeconomic forecasting
This paper describes a Bayesian specification procedure used to generate a vector autoregressive model for forecasting macroeconomic variables. The specification search is over parameters of a prior. This quasi-Bayesian approach is viewed as a flexible tool for constructing a filter which optimally extracts information about the future from a set of macroeconomic data. The procedure is applied to a set of data and a consistent improvement in forecasting performance is documented.
Report
Forecasting and conditional projection using realistic prior distribution
This paper develops a forecasting procedure based on a Bayesian method for estimating vector autoregressions. We apply the procedure to 10 macroeconomic variables and show that it produces more accurate out-of-sample forecasts than univariate equations do. Although cross-variable responses are damped by the prior, our estimates capture considerable interaction among the variables. ; We provide unconditional forecasts as of 1982:12 and 1983:3. We also describe how a model such as this can be used to make conditional projections and analyze policy alternatives. As an example, we analyze a ...