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Working Paper
Lockdowns and Innovation: Evidence from the 1918 Flu Pandemic
Does social distancing harm innovation? We estimate the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs)—policies that restrict interactions in an attempt to slow the spread of disease—on local invention. We construct a panel of issued patents and NPIs adopted by 50 large US cities during the 1918 flu pandemic. Difference-in-differences estimates show that cities adopting longer NPIs did not experience a decline in patenting during the pandemic relative to short-NPI cities, and recorded higher patenting afterward. Rather than reduce local invention by restricting localized knowledge ...
Working Paper
The Paper Trail of Knowledge Spillovers: Evidence from Patent Interferences [REVISED]
REVISED 9/2019: We show evidence of localized knowledge spillovers using a new database of multiple invention from U.S. patent interferences terminated between 1998 and 2014. Patent interferences resulted when two or more independent parties simultaneously submitted identical claims of invention to the U.S. Patent Office. Following the idea that inventors of identical inventions share common knowledge inputs, interferences provide a new method for measuring spillovers of tacit knowledge compared with existing (and noisy) measures such as citation links. Using matched pairs of inventors to ...
Working Paper
Innovation, cities, and new work
Where does adaptation to innovation take place? The supply of educated workers and local industry structure matter for the subsequent location of new work?that is, new types of labor-market activities that closely follow innovation. Using census 2000 microdata, the author shows that regions with more college graduates and a more diverse industrial base in 1990 are more likely to attract these new activities. Across metropolitan areas, initial college share and industrial diversity account for 50% and 20%, respectively, of the variation in selection into new work unexplained by worker ...
Journal Article
The Costs and Benefits of Fixing Downtown Freeways
Urban freeways spurred our suburban boom. Can burying them do the same for the urban core?
Working Paper
Freeway Revolts!
Freeway revolts were widespread protests across the U.S. following early urban Interstate construction in the mid-1950s. We present theory and evidence from panel data on neighborhoods and travel behavior to show that diminished quality of life from freeway disamenities inspired the revolts, a?ected the allocation of freeways within cities, and changed city structure. First, actual freeway construction diverged from initial plans in the wake of the growing freeway revolts and subsequent policy responses, especially in central neighborhoods. Second, freeways caused slower growth in population, ...
Working Paper
What Future for History Dependence in Spatial Economics?
History (sometimes) matters for the location and sizes of cities and neighborhood segregation patterns within cities. Together with evidence on rapid neighborhood change and self-fulfilling expectations, this implies that nature might not completely determine the spatial structure of the economy. Instead, the spatial economy might be characterized by multiple equilibria or multiple steady-state equilibrium paths, where history and expectations can play decisive roles. Better evidence on the conditions under which history matters can help improve theory and policy analysis.
Working Paper
Natural Amenities, Neighborhood Dynamics, and Persistence in the Spatial Distribution of Income
We present theory and evidence highlighting the role of natural amenities in neighborhood dynamics, suburbanization, and variation across cities in the persistence of the spatial distribution of income. Our model generates three predictions that we confirm using a novel database of consistent-boundary neighborhoods in U.S. metropolitan areas, 1880{2010, and spatial data for natural features such as coastlines and hills. First, persistent natural amenities anchor neighborhoods to high incomes over time. Second, naturally heterogeneous cities exhibit persistent spatial distributions of income. ...
Journal Article
Urban productivity advantages from job search and matching
Densely populated areas tend to be more productive. Of course, the cost of living and producing in these locations is higher because congestion raises the cost of scarce fixed resources such as land. But despite the higher prices, many people and businesses continue to live and work in these areas. Why? One explanation is that these locations have natural advantages, such as proximity to a river. Another says that this concentration of households and businesses by itself generates productivity advantages in the form of agglomeration economies. In studying these agglomeration economies, ...
Journal Article
The paper trail of knowledge transfers
Why do firms tend to locate near other firms? Economists suspect that geographic clustering spurs innovation by letting businesses tap a climate rich in informal transfers of knowledge. By tracing links between inventors filing for patents for the same inventions, Jeffrey Lin shares new evidence supporting the idea that proximity offers businesses tangible benefits.
Working Paper
Portage and path dependence
The authors examine portage sites in the U.S. South, Mid-Atlantic, and Midwest, including those on the fall line, a geomorphological feature in the southeastern U.S. marking the final rapids on rivers before the ocean. Historically, waterborne transport of goods required portage around the falls at these points, while some falls provided water power during early industrialization. These factors attracted commerce and manufacturing. Although these original advantages have long since been made obsolete, the authors document the continuing importance of these portage sites over time. They ...