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Working Paper
Are household surveys like tax forms: evidence from income underreporting of the self-employed
Pugsley, Benjamin; Li, Geng; Hurst, Erik (2011)
There is a large literature showing that the self-employed underreport their income to tax authorities. In this paper, we quantify the extent to which the self-employed also systematically underreport their income in U.S. household surveys. To do so, we use the Engel curve describing the relationship between income and expenditures of wage and salary workers to infer the actual income, and thus the reporting gap, of the self-employed based on their reported expenditures. We find that the self-employed underreport their income by about 30 percent. This result is remarkably robust across data ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2011-06

Working Paper
A semiparametric characterization of income uncertainty over the life cycle
Li, Geng; Feigenbaum, James (2010)
We propose a novel approach to estimate household income uncertainty at various future horizons and characterize how the estimated uncertainty evolves over the life cycle. We measure income uncertainty as the variance of linear forecast errors conditional on information available to households prior to observing the realized income. This approach is semiparametric because we impose essentially no restrictions on the statistical properties of the forecast errors. Relative to previous studies, we find lower and less persistent income uncertainties that call for a life cycle consumption profile ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2010-42

Working Paper
Lifecycle dynamics of income uncertainty and consumption
Li, Geng; Feigenbaum, James (2008)
Uninsurable income risk is often cited as an explanation for empirical deviations from the Lifecycle/Permanent-Income Hypothesis such as the observation that the life-cycle profile of mean consumption is hump-shaped. Most methods used for estimating income uncertainty essentially measure the cross-sectional variance of a subpopulation rather than the true uncertainty or riskiness perceived by consumers. In this paper, we employ a nonparametric approach to estimate idiosyncratic income uncertainty. We measure income uncertainties as the variance of income forecasting errors at different ages ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2008-27

Discussion Paper
Is Underemployment Underestimated? Evidence from Panel Data
Li, Geng; McCully, Brett (2016-05-16)
Despite a broad recovery of the U.S. economy from the depths of the Great Recession, lingering slack remains in the labor market.
FEDS Notes , Paper 2016-05-16

Discussion Paper
Gender-Related Differences in Credit Use and Credit Scores
Li, Geng (2018-06-22)
This note takes advantage of a unique proprietary data set that collects credit payment histories, debt portfolios, credit scores, and demographic information for a sample of consumers.
FEDS Notes , Paper 2018-06-22

Working Paper
Belief dispersion among household investors and stock trading volume
Li, Geng; Li, Dan (2011)
We study the effects of belief dispersion on stock trading volume. Unlike most of the existing work on the subject, our paper focuses on how household investors' disagreements on macroeconomic variables influence market-wide trading volume. We show that greater belief dispersion among household investors is associated with significantly higher trading volume, even after controlling for the disagreements among professional forecasters. Further, we find that the belief dispersion among household investors who are more likely to own stocks has more pronounced effects on trading volume, ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2011-39

Discussion Paper
Having a Lot Isn't Enough: Trends in Upsizing Houses and Shrinking Lots
Bowen, Dillon; Li, Geng (2017-11-03)
The median size of single family residences built from 1980 to 2014 grew by 50 percent, from 1,600 to 2,400 square feet. By contrast, during that same time, the median lot size shrank by over 20 percent; dwindling from 11,300 to 8,800 square feet. As a result, we observe a marked increase in the building-to-lot-size ratio, the median of which ballooned from 0.14 for houses constructed in 1980 to 0.27 for those constructed in 2014. In this note, we document the trend of the building-to-lot-size ratio in recent decades and study the factors associated with heterogeneity observed both in the ...
FEDS Notes , Paper 2017-11-03

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