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Working Paper
Belief dispersion among household investors and stock trading volume
Li, Geng; Li, Dan (2011)
We study the effects of belief dispersion on stock trading volume. Unlike most of the existing work on the subject, our paper focuses on how household investors' disagreements on macroeconomic variables influence market-wide trading volume. We show that greater belief dispersion among household investors is associated with significantly higher trading volume, even after controlling for the disagreements among professional forecasters. Further, we find that the belief dispersion among household investors who are more likely to own stocks has more pronounced effects on trading volume, ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2011-39

Working Paper
In the Driver's Seat: Pandemic Fiscal Stimulus and Light Vehicles
Tito, Maria D.; Kurz, Christopher J.; Li, Geng; Dunbar, Jack (2024-03-22)
This paper explores the impact of two fiscal programs, the Economic Impact Payments and the Paycheck Protection Program, on vehicle purchases and relates our findings to post-pandemic price pressures. We find that receiving a stimulus check increased the probability of purchasing new vehicles. In addition, the disbursement of funds from the Paycheck Protection Program was associated with a rise in local new car registrations. Our estimates indicate that these two programs account for a boost of 1 3/4 million units -- or 12 percent -- to new car sales in 2020. Furthermore, the induced boost in ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2024-013

Working Paper
Are Household Investors Noise Traders: Evidence from Belief Dispersion and Stock Trading Volume
Li, Geng; Li, Dan (2014-02-19)
We document a robust positive relationship between the belief dispersion about macroeconomic conditions among household investors and the stock market trading volume, using more than 30 years of household survey data and a novel approach to measuring belief dispersions. Notably, such a relationship prevails even after various series of professional analysts' belief dispersions are controlled for. Consistent with a causal effect, such a relationship is most pronounced for belief dispersion among individuals who are most likely to own stocks and for trading volume of stocks that are most ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2014-35

Working Paper
Are household surveys like tax forms: evidence from income underreporting of the self-employed
Pugsley, Benjamin; Li, Geng; Hurst, Erik (2011)
There is a large literature showing that the self-employed underreport their income to tax authorities. In this paper, we quantify the extent to which the self-employed also systematically underreport their income in U.S. household surveys. To do so, we use the Engel curve describing the relationship between income and expenditures of wage and salary workers to infer the actual income, and thus the reporting gap, of the self-employed based on their reported expenditures. We find that the self-employed underreport their income by about 30 percent. This result is remarkably robust across data ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2011-06

Discussion Paper
The Young and the Carless? The Demographics of New Vehicle Purchases
Kurz, Christopher J.; Li, Geng; Vine, Daniel J. (2016-06-24)
A number of recent studies and press articles have documented a dramatic decline in young adults' willingness to own vehicles, particularly in the years since the 2007-09 recession.
FEDS Notes , Paper 2016-06-24

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