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Journal Article
Bank capital standards for foreign exchange and other market risks
The Basle Committee on Banking Supervision has proposed methods for incorporating consideration of market risks--exchange rate, interest rate, and equity price risks--into risk-based capital standards for banks. This paper shows that the separate and seemingly different proposed approaches to the three sources of risk are consistent with one another, reflecting a single unifying theme. That theme is the measurement of risk through a weighting of two different measures of portfolio size, the gross position and the net position. A simple theoretical model demonstrates that such an approach ...
Journal Article
The persistence of bank profits: what the stock market implies
This paper examines the speed with which abnormal economic profits vanish in the U.S. banking industry. A model is developed to infer expected speeds of profit adjustment from stock market and financial accounting data, deriving the rate of adjustment that is most consistent with observed cross-sectional relationships between bank stock prices and profitability. The model allows for the possibility that reported accounting income may be a biased and noisy signal of economic profit. Estimation is performed using generalized nonlinear least squares on a pooled series of cross sections. The ...
Journal Article
Can the stock market tell bank supervisors anything they don't already know?
This article provides evidence consistent with recent policy proposals calling for a greater role for market forces in promoting a safe and sound financial system. The authors' empirical results indicate a measure of expected default probability distilled from equity prices helps predict the financial condition of individual banking organizations, as reflected in their supervisory ratings. Moreover, the stock market data have predictive power over and above the information in the quarterly financial statements available to supervisors between inspections. These findings suggest financial ...
Conference Paper
What happens if banks are closed \"early\"?
Working Paper
Australian banking risk: evidence from share prices
We use share price data to calculate bank asset volatilities, market capital-asset ratios, and the public-sector depositor protection liability for Australia. The results show that the average capital ratio for the Australian banking sector has risen over the past decade, while the riskiness of bank assets has increased slightly. An examination of the relationship between asset volatility and bank capital implies that riskier banks have tended to maintain higher capital ratios, with a similar positive relationship between the two variables over time at individual banks. We find that the ...
Journal Article
Explaining differences in farm lending among banks
Do small, rural banks lend to farmers because they are small, or because they are rural? This paper combines a new measure of the extent of agricultural activity in banking markets with an appropriate statistical framework to examine causes of interbank variation in agricultural production loans. The results show that a bank's size and head office location both matter to some extent, but that the size of a bank's branches in agricultural areas is the single most important factor determining agricultural loan levels. Other variables, such as ownership structure and charter type, have no ...
Conference Paper
Beyond traditional credit risk: capital standards for market risks
Working Paper
A simple approach to better deposit insurance pricing
Journal Article
Small banks, small loans, small business