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Journal Article
Accounting for the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks on Exchange Rates through Markup Dynamics
This study investigates how fiscal policy shocks affect the external sector through markup dynamics in advanced and developing economies. We focus on the role of markup dynamics as a channel through which fiscal policy has a distinct effect on real exchange rates. Using panel data from 32 countries, we employ a local projection to evaluate the impact of expansionary fiscal policy shocks on real exchange rates, markups, and current accounts. Our empirical findings show distinct responses to the shocks among advanced and developing countries regarding the real exchange rate, due to different ...
Journal Article
Credit Expansion and Markups
This article documents new empirical facts about the effects of credit expansion on the aggregate markup and markup dispersion in the United States. We use U.S. macroeconomic data and Jordà's local projection and single-equation estimation methods. The results for both methods show that the aggregate markup and markup dispersion increase in response to both a firm debt shock and a household debt shock. The previous literature mostly focused on the effect of firm debt financing on firm markups. Extending previous research, our study shows that household credit expansion also plays a role in ...
Working Paper
Can the Public Carry Trade Restore Fiscal Sustainability? Evidence from Korea's Consolidated Balance Sheet
Can governments use a carry-trade strategy to offset the fiscal costs of population aging? We examine this question through the consolidated balance sheet of Korea’s public sector, combining the assets and liabilities of the government, public pension and investment funds, and the central bank. The consolidated balance sheet reveals increasing reliance on a carry trade in which risky, increasingly foreign assets are financed with safe, low-yielding domestic liabilities. This strategy has generated a favorable return spread and strengthened public net worth. However, present-value accounting ...