Search Results
Discussion Paper
November 2014 Update of the FRB/US Model
This FEDS Note is a companion to the most recent release of the FRB/US model of the U.S. economy available at http://www.federalreserve.gov/econresdata/frbus/us-models-about.htm. The purpose of this note is twofold. First, it briefly outlines and describes the changes to the structure of the public version of FRB/US since its introduction in the spring of 2014. In addition, it compares the dynamics of the current version to that of the original version in response to key shocks.
Conference Paper
Pricing models: a Bayesian DSGE approach to the U.S. economy
Discussion Paper
Overview of the Changes to the FRB/US Model (2018)
This FEDS Note summarizes a more comprehensive set of modifications introduced with the November 2018 public release of the FRB/US model and provides some motivation for why they were made.
Working Paper
Have we underestimated the likelihood and severity of zero lower bound events?
Before the recent recession, the consensus among researchers was that the zero lower bound (ZLB) probably would not pose a significant problem for monetary policy as long as a central bank aimed for an inflation rate of about 2 percent; some have even argued that an appreciably lower target inflation rate would pose no problems. This paper reexamines this consensus in the wake of the financial crisis, which has seen policy rates at their effective lower bound for more than two years in the United States and Japan and near zero in many other countries. We conduct our analysis using a set of ...
Journal Article
Estimating the macroeconomic effects of the Fed’s asset purchases
An analysis shows that the Federal Reserve?s large-scale asset purchases have been effective at reducing the economic costs of the zero lower bound on interest rates. Model simulations indicate that, by 2012, the past and projected expansion of the Fed?s securities holdings since late 2008 will lower the unemployment rate by 1 percentage points relative to what it would have been absent the purchases. The asset purchases also have probably prevented the U.S. economy from falling into deflation.
Discussion Paper
Real-time Historical Estimates of the Output Gap
The purpose of this note is to highlight the recent availability of an expanded set of historical data of the staff's estimates of the real-time output gap at the Real-Time Data Research Center of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.