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Monetary Policy Surprises and Inflation Expectations
The private sector may slightly underestimate the short-term impact of monetary policy surprises on inflation but may predict longer-term effects fairly well.
Journal Article
Rethinking Global Value Chains During COVID-19: Part 1
GVCs can make final goods production less costly and more efficient, but they are not without risks.
Working Paper
Cross-border Patenting, Globalization, and Development
We build a stylized model that captures the relationships between cross-border patenting, globalization, and development. Our theory delivers a gravity equation for cross-border patents. To test the model’s predictions, we compile a new dataset that tracks patents within and between countries and industries, for 1980-2019. The econometric analysis reveals a strong, positive impact of policy and globalization on cross-border patent flows, especially from North to South. A counterfactual welfare analysis suggests that the increase in patent flows from North to South has benefited both ...
Which Households Are Most Exposed to the Inflation “Tax”?
The federal government benefits from unexpected bouts of inflation since the real value of its debt falls. However, this also hurts its debtholders.
Journal Article
Geographic Patterns of Innovation Across U.S. States: 1980-2010
The distribution of innovation in the United States has become more concentrated and has shifted to the West.
Journal Article
The Rise of Asia as a Destination for U.S. Patenting
China has become one of the main destinations where U.S. inventors seek to protect their intellectual property.
How Much Are We “Taxed” by Surprise Inflation?
When inflation surprises to the upside, borrowers pay back less in real terms. And Uncle Sam is America’s biggest borrower.
How Does Human Capital Affect Wealth Inequality?
Accounting for human capital can change the distribution of wealth and some common measures of wealth inequality.
Working Paper
Taxation and the Global Allocation of Intangibles
We study how international tax systems shape the global allocation of intangible assets. Firm-level data show that cross-border patent ownership transfers respond strongly to tax differentials, especially within multinational firms, while arm’s-length transfers are more closely associated with intellectual property rights (IPR) protection. We develop a model in which patent owners choose whether to license, sell, or transfer patents to a foreign affiliate, linking tax rates, IPR protection and transfer-pricing wedges to patent location. Counterfactuals suggest that tax harmonization and ...
Transfer Pricing of Intangible Assets: Evidence from Patent Data
To reduce their tax exposure, multinationals may seek to shift profits to countries with lower tax rates. Do patents play a role in this strategy?