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Discussion Paper
Mass Population Displacement and Retail Activities in the Wake of Hurricane Katrina
Gagnon, Etienne; López-Salido, J. David (2015-08-26)
This week marks the 10th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina's tragic landfall near New Orleans, Louisiana, and the forced relocation of hundreds of thousands of families who lost their homes in the disaster. This mass population displacement boosted, for an extended period, population density and store frequentation in areas that were relatively spared by the storm. This note argues that supermarkets that weathered the hurricane raised prices little despite facing markedly higher store traffic and likely disruptions to their supply chains.
FEDS Notes , Paper 2015-08-26

Working Paper
Supply-Side Effects of Pandemic Mortality: Insights from an Overlapping-Generations Model
López-Salido, J. David; Johannsen, Benjamin K.; Gagnon, Etienne (2020-08-19)
We use an overlapping generation model to explore the implications of mortality during pandemics for the economy's productive capacity. Under current epidemiological projections for the progression of COVID-19, our model suggests that mortality will have, in itself, at most small effects on output and factor prices. The reason is that projected mortality is small in proportion to the population and skewed toward individuals who are retired from the labor force. That said, we show that if the spread of COVID-19 is not contained, or if the ongoing pandemic were to follow a mortality pattern ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2020-060

Conference Paper
Understanding the effects of government spending on consumption
Vallés, Javier; López-Salido, J. David; Gali, Jordi (2003)
Proceedings

Working Paper
International competition and inflation: a New Keynesian perspective
López-Salido, J. David; Gust, Christopher J.; Guerrieri, Luca (2008)
We develop and estimate an open economy New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) in which variable demand elasticities give rise to changes in desired markups in response to changes in competitive pressure from abroad. A parametric restriction on our specification yields the standard NKPC, in which the elasticity is constant, and there is no role for foreign competition to influence domestic inflation. By comparing the unrestricted and restricted specifications, we provide evidence that foreign competition plays an important role in accounting for the behavior of inflation in the traded goods ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 918

Discussion Paper
Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest: The Role of Inflation Expectations
López-Salido, J. David; Sanz-Maldonado, Gerardo; Schippits, Carly; Wei, Min (2020-06-19)
The "natural" or equilibrium real rate of interest is an important concept in macroeconomics. On the one hand, the natural (real) rate provides a description of the real interest rate path consistent with the eventual full capacity of utilization of available resources in the context of low and stable inflation.
FEDS Notes , Paper 2020-06-19

Working Paper
Sticky-price models and the natural rate hypothesis
López-Salido, J. David; Andres, Javier; Nelson, Edward (2005)
A major criticism of standard specifications of price adjustment in models for monetary policy analysis is that they violate the natural rate hypothesis by allowing output to differ from potential in steady state. In this paper we estimate a dynamic optimizing business cycle model whose price-setting behavior satisfies the natural rate hypothesis. The price-adjustment specifications we consider are the sticky-information specification of Mankiw and Reis (2002) and the indexed contracts of Christiano, Eichenbaum, and Evans (2005). Our empirical estimates of the real side of the economy are ...
Working Papers , Paper 2005-018

Working Paper
Hysteresis via Endogenous Rigidity in Wages and Participation
López-Salido, J. David; Doniger, Cynthia L. (2017-04-11)
We document that the past three ?jobless? recoveries also featured asymmetries in labor force participation and labor compensation, with each falling to new lows during each cycle. We model these asymmetries as resulting from a strategic complementarity in firms' wage setting and workers' job search strategies. Strategic complementarity results in a continuum of possible equilibria with higher-wage equilibria welfare dominating lower-wage equilibria. Assuming that no economic agent deviates from an existing strategy unless deviation is a unilateral best response, the model exhibits (1) ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2017-044

Working Paper
The Cyclicality of Sales, Regular and Effective Prices: Comment
Sockin, Jason A.; López-Salido, J. David; Gagnon, Etienne (2015-07-09)
Coibion, Gorodnichenko, and Hong (2015) argue that the CPI underestimates the deceleration in consumer prices during economic downturns because the index fails to account for the reallocation of consumer spending from high- to low-price stores. We show that these authors' measures of inflation with and without store switching suffer from several methodological deficiencies, including an excessive truncation of price adjustments and the lack of a treatment for missing observations. When we address these deficiencies, the authors' key regression results no longer suggest that greater store ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2015-52

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