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Report
Are there "bank effects" in borrowers' costs of funds? Evidence from a matched sample of borrowers and banks
We use a large matched sample of individual loans, borrowers, and banks to investigate whether bank financial health affects terms of lending, holding constant proxies for borrower risk and information costs. In particular, we focus on measuring effects of borrower and bank characteristics on loan interest rates; we also investigate implications of borrower and bank characteristics for indirect measures of credit availability. ; Our principal findings are six. First, even after controlling for proxies for borrower risk and information costs, the cost of borrowing from low-capital banks is ...
Report
Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: evidence from the Fed funds futures markets
This paper estimates the impact of monetary policy actions on bill, note, and bond yields, using data from the futures market for federal funds to separate changes in the target funds rate into anticipated and unanticipated components. Bond rates' response to anticipated changes is essentially zero, while their response to unanticipated movements is large and highly significant. Surprise policy actions have little effect on near-term expectations of future actions, which helps explain the failure of the expectations hypothesis on the short end of the yield curve.
Journal Article
Does inflation reduce productivity?
Journal Article
Sources of New York employment fluctuations
The authors analyze employment growth in the metropolitan region and its relationship to employment in the United States as a whole. They identify a strong cyclical link between the region and the nation, punctuated by occasional, persistent shifts in the region's underlying growth rate. Some shifts are found to be related to industry factors, such as the restructuring of financial services in the late 1980s. However, the authors attribute a large and increasing share of New York employment fluctuations to region-specific factors.